CISCO


CISCO Futures
1-303-306-1521 1-800 800 7227 Fax 1-303-306-1598
Internet http//www.cisco-futures.com
Email dljones@cisco-futures.com



The CISCO Trader Control Package
Copyright CISCO, July 15, 2002



Keywords:
Market Condition, Bracket Screen, Internal Trends, Overlay Demand Curves, Time Frames (5, 10, 15, 20 days), Commercial Capping, Trading Reference Points


The Trader Control Package (TCP) user can survey the entire market for those futures in balance (bracketing). This permits a rapid overview of the entire marketplace in just a minute or two. Brackets are determined by the Overlay Demand Curves. Balance is defined as a single distribution with the close inside the distribution. Brackets are listed for 5, 10, 15 and 20 day balances for convenience. Actually, a market comes into balance as a trend ends. The first day is indistinguishable from a pause in the trend; but after several days as, the congestion aggregates, the balance emerges. Rule of Thumb: For a market to be in balance, the intermediate Overlays must be in balance also. If a 15 day bracket is listed, there must be balances for both the 5 and 10 day as well.


Summary Bracket Screen  December 18, 1998
-----------------------

For $ Range of Bracket (if it exists)
-------------------------------------
- if NO bracket exists for 5,10,15,20 day overlays
$ range if bracket exists for 5,10,15,20 day overlays

For Location of close in Bracket (if it exists)
-----------------------------------------------
- if NO bracket exists for 5,10,15,20 day overlays
D if bracket exists and close in lower octant for 5,10,15,20 day overlays
. if bracket exists and close in central region for 5,10,15,20 day overlays
U if bracket exists and close in upper octant for 5,10,15,20 day overlays


                                            Location   
                                            of close   
                     $ Range of Bracket     in Bracket 
                       (if it exists)      (if exists) 
 Contract        5      10      15      20  5 10 15 20  
==========  ============================== =========== 
BP   3  99       -    1375       -       -  -  .  -  -
CC   3  99    2156    2812       -       -  .  .  -  -
CD   3  99     350     480     580     600  D  D  D  D
CD  12  98     250     800     800    1200  .  .  .  .
CL   1  99       -    1320       -    1280  -  .  -  .
CL   2  99       -       -       -    1240  -  -  -  D
DJ   3  99    2400    4100    4200       -  U  .  .  -
DJ  12  98    1800    4000       -       -  U  .  -  -
DM   3  99       -    1550       -       -  -  .  -  -
ED   3  99     175     275     325     450  .  .  .  .
ED   6  99     175     425     500     750  .  .  .  .
ED   9  99     200     475     650     950  .  .  .  .
FC   1  99    1275    1400       -       -  .  .  -  -
FC   3  99    1150    1425       -       -  .  .  -  -
FC   4  99     200    1000       -       -  D  .  -  -
GI   3  99     475     850     850       -  .  .  D  -
HO   1  99       -       -       -    2184  -  -  -  .
IX  12  98     380     620     580       -  .  .  .  -
JY   3  99    1625    2812       -       -  .  .  -  -
KW   3  99     350     462     625       -  .  .  .  -
LC   2  99     720    1040       -       -  .  .  -  -
LC   4  99       -    1560       -       -  -  .  -  -
LC  12  98     680     720       -       -  .  .  -  -
LH   4  99     700     700       -       -  U  U  -  -
MB   3  99    1281    1625    1406    1406  .  .  D  D
MW   3  99       -     500       -       -  -  D  -  -
ND  12  98       -    6100       -       -  -  U  -  -
NO   1  99       -       -    2800       -  -  -  U  -
NO   2  99    1300    2600    2300       -  U  .  .  -
NO   3  99     950       -    1600       -  .  -  U  -
NY   3  99     575    1600    1750    1850  .  .  .  .
NY   5  99     425    1175    1400    1550  U  .  .  .
OX   3  99     562    1125     812       -  .  .  .  -
OX  12  98       -     562       -       -  -  .  -  -
PB   2  99     980    1560    2000    2120  .  .  .  .
PB   3  99       -     540       -       -  -  D  -  -
QA   3  99       -   10000       -       -  -  U  -  -
QL   1  99       -       -       -    2016  -  -  -  D
SF   3  99    1125    2437       -       -  .  .  -  -
SM   1  99     340     780       -    1180  U  .  -  .
SM   3  99     290     340       -       -  .  .  -  -
SM   5  99     330     400       -       -  .  .  -  -
SP   3  99       -   12750   12250   12500  -  .  .  .
SP  12  98       -   10000   12500   12500  -  .  .  .
SV   3  99     800       -    1550    1550  .  -  .  .
T2   3  99     656    1312    1250       -  .  .  .  -
T2  12  98     375     843     937       -  .  .  .  -
TX   3  99       -     500       -       -  -  .  -  -
U2   3  99    1375    1937    1875       -  .  .  .  -
U2  12  98     843    1875    1750       -  .  .  .  -
U5   3  99       -    1781    1562       -  -  .  .  -
UU   3  99       -    2500    2300       -  -  U  U  -
W    3  99     375     675     750       -  .  .  .  -
W    5  99     325     575     700       -  .  .  .  -
W    7  99     325     625     675       -  .  .  .  -
XB   3  99    1375    1843    1812       -  .  .  .  -


The Bracket Screen shows a number of balances, CC 3, CD 3, DJ 3, ED 3, etc. CL 1 is not in balance, although there is are 10 and 20 day brackets, because the 5 and 15 day balances are missing. The T-bonds, U2 3, are in balance for 5 10 and 15 days. We evaluate the TCP for the T-bonds. Commodity Symbols
Bracket Screen Trader Control Package Text Data The Visual Graphic provides a more compact display than the text data. You can click for the background on the Visual Graphic separately. To get data (example): On homepage left sidebar scroll down to "Data" section (about 2/3 of way down) Click on 'End-of-Day Data' 1. For TCP data click on 'End-of-day TCP TEXT...' or 2. Scroll down to 'End-of-Day Visual Graphics ONLY' Click on 'Download Data' Click on checkboxes for Visual Graphic data you want Scroll to bottom of page, enter username and password Click on 'Get Data' button For up to 10 days of history: About 15 lines from the top of the data page Click on 'Previous 10 days of history' For explanation of Visual Graphics information: About 20 lines from the top of the data page Click on 'Explanation of CISCO Visual Graphic Visual Graphics Background Explanation of Visual Graphic Timing The VG data is scrubbed about 3 PM (Chicago time). Data is collected and the latest day update begins at 5 PM. The earliest VG files come up around 7 - 7:30 PM. When the LDB data is in (around 9:30 PM) a new update is begun ending about 11 PM. Another update starts 4 AM, picking up the late data. If you want to see VG data from the previous 10 days, you can do that at any time (link on the VG page 'Previous 10 days of history'). Item 1: The Screen The Upper and Lower Limits are listed for 5, 10 and 15 days. The column D after FUTURE is the nominal direction determined by the close: U is for closes in the upper half of the distribution, D is for closes in the lower half. The dollar column on the right has a Y for each bracket that exceeds $500. Screen for U2, 3 DY FUTURE D UPPER LOWER CLOSE $RNG 05 U2 3 99 L 13012 12900 12917 1375Y 10 U2 3 99 L 13030 12900 12917 1937Y 15 U2 3 99 L 13028 12900 12917 1875Y Item 2: The 20 Day Overlay The Overlay Demand Curves, their distribution analyses, the Internal Trend analysis and their 'Extensions' (Limits, Octants, etc.) are grouped for each of the basic Overlays (20, 15, 10 and 5 days). ** Day ranges are identified in the ROT PROFILE column: 20 days back is 'P', latest day (12 18 98) is '9'. The earlier days P, Q, R, S, T, and part of U describe an earlier distribution. A balance began on day U (Nov 30). So, even though the Overlay is 20 days, the balance is only 15.
THE CISCO TPO OVERLAY WITH THE ROTATION PROFILE U2 3: 20 DAY OVERLAY MAR 99 T-BOND (CBOT) DAY 11 20 98 TO 12 18 98 PRICE DYS L/F ROT PROFILE * TPOS TPO VOL OVERLAY * 13030 2 34 4 XXX 13028 2 34 6 XXXXX 13026 2 34 8 XXXXXXX 13024 3 234 13 XXXXXXXXXXX 13022 3 234 15 XXXXXXXXXXXXX 13020 4 W234 20 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 13018 5 WX234 20 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 13016 6 VWX234 21 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 13014 6 VWX234 22 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 13012 7 VWX2345 27 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 13010 7 VWX2345 34 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 13008 7 VWX2345 37 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 13006 8 VWXY2345 39 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 13004 7 VWXY245 34 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 13002 8 VWXY1245 26 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 13000 10 UVWXY12456 25 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12930 10 UVWXY14567 28 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12928 10 UVXYZ14567 31 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12926 9 UVYZ14567 41 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12924 9 UVYZ14567 46 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12922 9 UVYZ14678 44 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12920 9 UVYZ14678 41 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12918 10 9 UVYZ146789 36 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12916 9 9 UYZ146789 28 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12914 9 9 UYZ146789 29 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12912 8 9 UZ146789 39 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12910 7 9 UZ16789 45 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12908 7 9 UZ16789 27 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12906 5 UZ1678 20 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12904 5 UZ178 12 XXXXXXXXXX 12902 3 UZ7 8 XXXXXXX 12900 3 UZ7 6 XXXXX 12830 2 U7 3 XXX 12828 1 U 1 X 12826 1 U 3 XXX 12824 1 U 4 XXX 12822 1 U 3 XXX 12820 1 U 2 XX 12818 1 U 1 X 12814 1 P P 4 XXX 12812 2 P PT 11 XXXXXXXXXX 12810 2 P PT 17 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12808 3 P PQT 18 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 12806 3 P PQT 12 XXXXXXXXXX 12804 2 P PQ 8 XXXXXXX 12802 2 P PQ 6 XXXXX 12800 3 P PQS 7 XXXXXX 12730 2 P PS 4 XXX 12728 2 P RS 5 XXXX 12726 3 P PRS 5 XXXX 12724 3 QRS 8 XXXXXXX 12722 2 RS 8 XXXXXXX 12720 3 QRS 9 XXXXXXXX 12718 2 QR 9 XXXXXXXX 12716 2 QR 10 XXXXXXXXX 12714 2 QR 9 XXXXXXXX 12712 2 QR 8 XXXXXXX 12710 2 QR 8 XXXXXXX 12708 2 QR 6 XXXXX 12706 1 Q 2 XX 12704 1 Q 2 XX

Item 3:  The 20 Day Overlay Distribution Analysis
  
  OVERLAY ANALYSIS:  Entire Overlay
   Close  12917   Ten day:  Average range   31   Maximum range  120
   Number prices in overlay  61    Total TPOs 1025
   Trade facilitation factor (TPOs/prices/days) =  0.84
   TPO Control Price (HPTP)  12924:  TPOs Above and Below Control  451  526
  
  DISTRIBUTION INFO:  Minimum Dist = 4 Prices, 5 TPOs.  Latest day symb = 9
   There is/are 3 Distribution(s) in this Overlay
   DIST#  HIGH MXTPO   LOW  PEAKTPOs
       1 13028 12924 12900    46
       2 12812 12808 12800    18
       3 12728 12716 12708    10
   Close in Distribution #  1.  Limits = 13028 12900
      Quadrant 1-2 Division Pt:   13013.
      Quadrant 3-4 Division Pt:   12915.
      Each quadrant is approx.       15.
   Distribution Below Close =    12812 12800

  
Item 4:  Internal Trend Analysis
  Two Overlays, 8 days and 4 days list the Rotation Index and Quadrant of close.
  RI of 0.6 or below alerts for an internal trend, QD of 1 indicates an up
  direction, 4 is down.

 ROTATION INDEX AND QUADRANT OF CLOSE
                           8 DY CLO  4 DY CLO DAY
 TRD DATE      HI      LO    RI  QD    RI  QD  ID
 12 14 98   13013   12924  0.75   2  0.67   3   5
 12 15 98   13000   12905  0.83   4  0.50   4   6
 12 16 98   12930   12829  0.67   3  0.75   3   7
 12 17 98   12923   12903  0.83   3  0.58   2   8
 12 18 98   12918   12907  0.58   3  0.83   2   9


Item 5:  20 Day Overlay Extended Overlay(tm) Analysis 
  None.  There is no balance, so there are no Extensions.
  

Item 6:  The 15 Day Overlay

  
  THE CISCO TPO OVERLAY WITH THE ROTATION PROFILE
               U2  3:  15 DAY OVERLAY
 MAR 99 T-BOND (CBOT) DAY
 11 30 98 TO 12 18 98
  PRICE DYS  L/F ROT PROFILE *  TPOS TPO VOL OVERLAY *
  13030  2         34              4 XXX
  13028  2         34              6 XXXXX
  13026  2         34              8 XXXXXXX
  13024  3         234            13 XXXXXXXXXXX
  13022  3         234            15 XXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13020  4         W234           20 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13018  5         WX234          20 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13016  6         VWX234         21 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13014  6         VWX234         22 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13012  7         VWX2345        27 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13010  7         VWX2345        34 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13008  7         VWX2345        37 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13006  8         VWXY2345       39 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13004  7         VWXY245        34 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13002  8         VWXY1245       26 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13000 10   U     UVWXY12456     25 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12930 10   U     UVWXY14567     28 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12928 10   U     UVXYZ14567     31 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12926  9   U     UVYZ14567      41 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12924  9   U     UVYZ14567      46 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12922  9   U     UVYZ14678      44 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12920  9   U     UVYZ14678      41 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12918 10   U9    UVYZ146789     36 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12916  9   U9    UYZ146789      28 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12914  9   U9    UYZ146789      29 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12912  8   U9    UZ146789       39 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12910  7   U9    UZ16789        45 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12908  7   U9    UZ16789        27 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12906  5   U     Z1678          20 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12904  5   U     UZ178          12 XXXXXXXXXX
  12902  3   U     UZ7             8 XXXXXXX
  12900  3   U     UZ7             6 XXXXX
  12830  2   U     U7              3 XXX
  12828  1   U     U               1 X
  12826  1   U     U               3 XXX
  12824  1   U     U               4 XXX
  12822  1   U     U               3 XXX
  12820  1   U     U               2 XX
  12818  1   U     U               1 X
  

Item 7:  The 15 Day Overlay Distribution Analysis
  
  OVERLAY ANALYSIS:  Entire Overlay
   Close  12917   Ten day:  Average range   31   Maximum range  120
   Number prices in overlay  39    Total TPOs  849
   Trade facilitation factor (TPOs/prices/days) =  1.45
   TPO Control Price (HPTP)  12924:  TPOs Above and Below Control  451  350
  
  DISTRIBUTION INFO:  Minimum Dist = 4 Prices, 5 TPOs.  Latest day symb = 9
   There is/are 1 Distribution(s) in this Overlay
   DIST#  HIGH MXTPO   LOW  PEAKTPOs
       1 13028 12924 12900    46
   Close in Distribution #  1.  Limits = 13028 12900
      Quadrant 1-2 Division Pt:   13013.
      Quadrant 3-4 Division Pt:   12915.
      Each quadrant is approx.       15.
  
  
Item 8:  Internal Trend Analysis
   Same as for 20 day.

 ROTATION INDEX AND QUADRANT OF CLOSE
                           8 DY CLO  4 DY CLO DAY
 TRD DATE      HI      LO    RI  QD    RI  QD  ID
 12 14 98   13013   12924  0.75   2  0.67   3   5
 12 15 98   13000   12905  0.83   4  0.50   4   6
 12 16 98   12930   12829  0.67   3  0.75   3   7
 12 17 98   12923   12903  0.83   3  0.58   2   8
 12 18 98   12918   12907  0.58   3  0.83   2   9
  

Item 9:  15 Day Overlay Extended Overlay(tm) Analysis 


 Extended Overlay(tm) Analysis for:
 15 U2  3 99 Preferred Dir = L
    Location    Price    $Pot   $Risk
 Upper Limit    13028
 Octant         13021     718     239
 Sextant        13018     625     312
 Quadrant       13013     468     468
 Mid Dist       12930
 Quadrant       12915     468     468
 Sextant        12910     625     312
 Octant         12907     718     239
 Lower Limit    12900

Item 10:  The 10 Day Overlay

  
  THE CISCO TPO OVERLAY WITH THE ROTATION PROFILE
               U2  3:  10 DAY OVERLAY
 MAR 99 T-BOND (CBOT) DAY
 12 07 98 TO 12 18 98
  PRICE DYS  L/F ROT PROFILE *  TPOS TPO VOL OVERLAY *
  13030  2         34              4 XXXX
  13028  2         34              6 XXXXXX
  13026  2         34              8 XXXXXXX
  13024  3         234            13 XXXXXXXXXXXX
  13022  3         234            15 XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13020  3         234            18 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13018  3         234            17 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13016  3         234            15 XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13014  3         234            14 XXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13012  4         2345           16 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13010  4         2345           17 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13008  4         2345           14 XXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13006  4         2345           16 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13004  3         245            18 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  13002  4         1245           13 XXXXXXXXXXXX
  13000  5         12456          10 XXXXXXXXX
  12930  5         14567          11 XXXXXXXXXX
  12928  6   Z     Z14567         15 XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12926  6   Z     Z14567         20 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12924  6   Z     Z14567         23 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12922  6   Z     Z14678         24 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12920  6   Z     Z14678         23 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12918  7   Z9    Z146789        23 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12916  7   Z9    Z146789        22 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12914  7   Z9    Z146789        25 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12912  7   Z9    Z146789        37 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12910  6   Z9    Z16789         43 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12908  6   Z9    Z16789         26 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12906  5   Z     Z1678          20 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12904  4   Z     Z178           11 XXXXXXXXXX
  12902  2   Z     Z7              7 XXXXXXX
  12900  2   Z     Z7              4 XXXX
  12830  1         7               2 XX
  

Item 11:  The 10 Day Overlay Distribution Analysis
  
  OVERLAY ANALYSIS:  Entire Overlay
   Close  12917   Ten day:  Average range   31   Maximum range  120
   Number prices in overlay  33    Total TPOs  550
   Trade facilitation factor (TPOs/prices/days) =  1.67
   TPO Control Price (HPTP)  12910:  TPOs Above and Below Control  437   70
  
  DISTRIBUTION INFO:  Minimum Dist = 4 Prices, 3 TPOs.  Latest day symb = 9
   There is/are 1 Distribution(s) in this Overlay
   DIST#  HIGH MXTPO   LOW  PEAKTPOs
       1 13030 12910 12900    43
   Close in Distribution #  1.  Limits = 13030 12900
      Quadrant 1-2 Division Pt:   13015.
      Quadrant 3-4 Division Pt:   12915.
      Each quadrant is approx.       15.
  
  
Item 12:  Internal Trend Analysis
   Same as for 20 day.

 ROTATION INDEX AND QUADRANT OF CLOSE
                           8 DY CLO  4 DY CLO DAY
 TRD DATE      HI      LO    RI  QD    RI  QD  ID
 12 14 98   13013   12924  0.75   2  0.67   3   5
 12 15 98   13000   12905  0.83   4  0.50   4   6
 12 16 98   12930   12829  0.67   3  0.75   3   7
 12 17 98   12923   12903  0.83   3  0.58   2   8
 12 18 98   12918   12907  0.58   3  0.83   2   9


Item 13:  10 Day Overlay Extended Overlay(tm) Analysis 

  
 Extended Overlay(tm) Analysis for:
 10 U2  3 99 Preferred Dir = L
    Location    Price    $Pot   $Risk
 Upper Limit    13030
 Octant         13023     750     250
 Sextant        13020     656     328
 Quadrant       13015     500     500
 Mid Dist       12931
 Quadrant       12915     500     500
 Sextant        12910     656     328
 Octant         12907     750     250
 Lower Limit    12900
  

Item 14:  The 5 Day Overlay

  
  THE CISCO TPO OVERLAY WITH THE ROTATION PROFILE
               U2  3:   5 DAY OVERLAY
 MAR 99 T-BOND (CBOT) DAY
 12 14 98 TO 12 18 98
  PRICE DYS  L/F ROT PROFILE *  TPOS TPO VOL OVERLAY *
  13013  1   5     5               2 XX
  13012  1   5     5               3 XXX
  13011  1   5     5               5 XXXXX
  13010  1   5     5               6 XXXXXX
  13009  1   5     5               6 XXXXXX
  13008  1   5     5               6 XXXXXX
  13007  1   5     5               4 XXXX
  13006  1   5     5               8 XXXXXXXX
  13005  1   5     5               9 XXXXXXXXX
  13004  1   5     5              11 XXXXXXXXXXX
  13003  1   5     5               9 XXXXXXXXX
  13002  1   5     5               8 XXXXXXXX
  13001  1   5     5               6 XXXXXX
  13000  2   5     56              7 XXXXXXX
  12931  2   5     56              3 XXX
  12930  3   5     567             8 XXXXXXXX
  12929  3   5     567             9 XXXXXXXXX
  12928  3   5     567            10 XXXXXXXXXX
  12927  3   5     567            10 XXXXXXXXXX
  12926  3   5     567            11 XXXXXXXXXXX
  12925  3   5     567            12 XXXXXXXXXXXX
  12924  3   5     567            13 XXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12923  3         678            11 XXXXXXXXXXX
  12922  3         678            13 XXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12921  3         678            13 XXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12920  3         678            12 XXXXXXXXXXXX
  12919  3         678             9 XXXXXXXXX
  12918  4    9    6789           12 XXXXXXXXXXXX
  12917  4    9    6789           11 XXXXXXXXXXX
  12916  4    9    6789           13 XXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12915  4    9    6789           17 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12914  4    9    6789           16 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12913  4    9    6789           21 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12912  4    9    6789           27 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12911  4    9    6789           31 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12910  4    9    6789           32 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12909  4    9    6789           30 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12908  4    9    6789           17 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12907  4    9    6789           13 XXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12906  3         678            14 XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12905  3         678            13 XXXXXXXXXXXXX
  12904  2         78              7 XXXXXXX
  12903  2         78              7 XXXXXXX
  12902  1         7               5 XXXXX
  12901  1         7               3 XXX
  12900  1         7               3 XXX
  12831  1         7               2 XX
  12830  1         7               2 XX
  12829  1         7               1 X
  

Item 15:  The 5 Day Overlay Distribution Analysis
  
  OVERLAY ANALYSIS:  Entire Overlay
   Close  12917   Ten day:  Average range   31   Maximum range  120
   Number prices in overlay  49    Total TPOs  521
   Trade facilitation factor (TPOs/prices/days) =  2.13
   TPO Control Price (HPTP)  12910:  TPOs Above and Below Control  372  116
  
  DISTRIBUTION INFO:  Minimum Dist = 4 Prices, 3 TPOs.  Latest day symb = 9
   There is/are 1 Distribution(s) in this Overlay
   DIST#  HIGH MXTPO   LOW  PEAKTPOs
       1 13012 12910 12900    32
   Close in Distribution #  1.  Limits = 13012 12900
      Quadrant 1-2 Division Pt:   13001.
      Quadrant 3-4 Division Pt:   12911.
      Each quadrant is approx.       11.
  

Item 16:  Internal Trend Analysis
   Same as for 20 day.

 ROTATION INDEX AND QUADRANT OF CLOSE
                           8 DY CLO  4 DY CLO DAY
 TRD DATE      HI      LO    RI  QD    RI  QD  ID
 12 14 98   13013   12924  0.75   2  0.67   3   5
 12 15 98   13000   12905  0.83   4  0.50   4   6
 12 16 98   12930   12829  0.67   3  0.75   3   7
 12 17 98   12923   12903  0.83   3  0.58   2   8
 12 18 98   12918   12907  0.58   3  0.83   2   9


Item 17:  5 Day Overlay Extended Overlay(tm) Analysis 

  
 Extended Overlay(tm) Analysis for:
  5 U2  3 99 Preferred Dir = L
    Location    Price    $Pot   $Risk
 Upper Limit    13012
 Octant         13007     531     177
 Sextant        13005     468     234
 Quadrant       13001     343     343
 Mid Dist       12922
 Quadrant       12911     343     343
 Sextant        12907     468     234
 Octant         12905     531     177
 Lower Limit    12900

Item 18:  Commercial Analysis
  Commercial analysis identifies unusual commercial activity at the day's extreme
  prices, the high and the low.  Three measures are used: VOL/PRICE TIC, VALUE AREA
  and QUADRANT.  If distributions were ideal bell shapes, either of the first two
  measures would be sufficient.  All three measures are explained in detail in the
  text on pages 33 through 46.

  Two tables of commercial activity list the actual calculations for the trader who
  wishes to keep track and develop an alternate measure with the lower table summarizing
  the upper for quick analyis.


  
  The CISCO Commercial Traders Volume Analysis
  
                                VOL/PRICE TIC         VALUE AREA      QUADRANT
     DATE  HIGH   LOW CLOSE CTI V-AB V-VA V-BL %TOT %ABV  %VA %BLO   %QD1 %QD4
 12 18 98 12918 12907 12918   2   36  100    2  7.7  2.1  5.6  0.0   14.9  4.6
 12 17 98 12923 12903 12923   2   26  100   23  8.5  1.5  6.4  0.7    8.9 18.2
 12 16 98 12930 12829 12925   2   50  100    4  6.9  2.0  5.0  0.0   14.1 26.5
 12 15 98 13000 12905 12909   2   34  100   20  6.6  0.5  4.9  1.3   33.8  3.6
 12 14 98 13013 12924 13002   2    6  100   40  5.7  0.0  4.2  1.5   30.3 10.9
 12 11 98 13030 12910 12920   2    5  100   59  6.1  0.0  4.6  1.5   31.2 18.1
 12 10 98 13100 13006 13019   2    3  100   26  7.7  0.0  6.3  1.3   34.1  4.0
 12 09 98 13025 13000 13018   2   15  100   25  6.1  0.3  4.8  1.0   20.1 12.2
 12 08 98 13003 12904 13003   2   26  100    6  7.1  1.8  5.3  0.1    9.9 28.5
 12 07 98 12929 12900 12900   2    0  100   60  6.8  0.0  5.2  1.6   28.4 21.0
  
                  AVERAGE     2   20  100   26  6.9  0.8  5.2  0.9   22.6 14.7
  
 12 18 Upper Comml Action: 12918             VALUE AREA
 12 17 Upper Comml Action: 12923             VALUE AREA
 12 16 Upper Comml Action: 12930             VALUE AREA
       Lower Comml Action: 12829                         QUADRANT
 12 15 Upper Comml Action: 13000                         QUADRANT
 12 14 Upper Comml Action: 13013                         QUADRANT
       Lower Comml Action: 12924             VALUE AREA
 12 11 Upper Comml Action: 13030                         QUADRANT
       Lower Comml Action: 12910             VALUE AREA
 12 10 Upper Comml Action: 13100                         QUADRANT
       Lower Comml Action: 13006             VALUE AREA
 12 09 Lower Comml Action: 13000             VALUE AREA
 12 08 Upper Comml Action: 13003             VALUE AREA
       Lower Comml Action: 12904                         QUADRANT
 12 07 Lower Comml Action: 12900             VALUE AREA

 Commercials 


  

Item 19:  Day Market Review of Reference Points
  The basic five reference points are listed above (Limits, Octants, Middle, commercial
  activity and Internal Trend.  A sixth basic reference point is the pauses in a trend.

  In the Market Review we find additional reference points using volume, volatility
  TPO's and various other factors for reading the direction and conviction of the
  traders in the market.
  


                  MARKET REVIEW T-BOND (CBOT) DAY
                           U2 03 99
                   CURRENT DAY 12 18 98   PREVIOUS 12 17 98
 OPEN                             12915  lower        12921
 HIGH                             12918  lower        12923
 LOW                              12907  higher       12903
 CLOSE                            12918  lower        12923
 HIGH VAL PRICE (POC)             12912  higher       12911
 VALUE AREA              12913 -  12909 l h  12917 -  12908
 TPO`s, TOTAL                        81                 106
 TPO`s, ABOVE POC                    30                  58
 TPO`s, BELOW POC                    37                  36
 TRADE FACILITATION FACTOR         6.75  higher        5.05
 SHAPE FACTOR                      4.81  lower         7.14
 VOLATILITY: CV =                  5.79  lower         7.57
 TOTAL VOLUME                    168488  lower       336484
 COMMERCIAL VOLUME                13033  lower        28765
 PUBLIC VOLUME                    53211  lower        90967
 HI/LO (% HIGH IN 60 DAYS)           48%
 INITIAL BALANCE                  12915               12909
 I-B RNG, CLO/IB, PCT/TOT             6  ABV-IB          54%
 VALUE AREA RANGE                     4  even            10
 ATTEMPTED DIR  U, D or blank         D                   D
 VALUE AREA DIR  H, A, Z or L or bl
  
   Todays Point of Control is higher.
   Todays attempted direction is down.     Yesterdays was down.
   The Value Area direction is no change.
        Shape-Distribution:  Minimum Distrib = 4 Prices, 1 TPO.
             There is/are 1 Distribution(s) on this day.
             DIST#  HIGH   POC   LOW  POC-TPOs
                 1 12918 12912 12907    13
  
            ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION BY PERIOD
  The half-hour periods are:  yzABCDEFGHIJKLM
  The first pd is 10 min; the rest are 30.
 The market was balancing (accumulating) for 12 half-hour period(s)
 from  3 to 14 (A to L).
 The accumulation price region was  12917 12908.

  

Item 20:  Half-Hour Tick Bars
  Half-hour periods are the minimum times used in auction analysis.  The TPO's are
  along the top, identifying the periods (y = 7:00 to 7:30, z = 7:30 to 8:00, A = 8:00
  to 8:30 and so on throughout the trading day.  The tick counts help validate the
  activity in each period.


  
               HALF-HOUR AUCTIONS FOR THE DAY.
           y   z   A   B   C   D   E   F   G   H   I   J   K   L   M
  12918                                                4       5   3
  12917                                           10   8      15   5
  12916                                           18   4      17   4
  12915    2                                      11   4      15
  12914    2   8                                   5   4       8
  12913   10  22   1  13  14   5               1   5   4       1
  12912   23  27   7  21  20   8   7       1   2   2   6   4   5
  12911   15  22  28  18  12   5  12      14   6       9  12   8
  12910       15  36   9   7  14   5   6  15  11       4  20   8
  12909        5  21       2   9   1   6       6          13   3
  12908            8       1   3       3
  12907            1
  
 ** The names Overlay Profile, Rotation Profile and Rotation Index
     are trademarks of CISCO 1989.  All rights reserved.
 This report may not be reproduced or retransmitted without the express
 written consent of CISCO.

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