Beginning Trading
Potential futures traders come from all walks of life. Some are
'numeric' people like engineers, some are from the soft sciences (history, english, etc.)
and others do not have an academic background. Surprisingly, experience shows that each
class has about the same chance for success. Two requirements are discipline and
an ability to see below the surface. The undisciplined go broke quickly: these are
people who cannot accept a loss (i.e. they lose too much on a trade). Those who can
examine a market situation and read the
inner behavior from the external (e.g. they see value rather than just price) are the ones
most fitted for trading.
Traders come to the CISCO website with all levels of preparation:
March 31, 2005
Copyright CISCO 2005. All rights reserved.
A methodology to discern value from price activity got it's start in 1985 when
J. Peter Steidlmayer announced the Market Profile, as incorporated into the
Chicago Board of Trade Liquidity Data Bank. Using cleared trading data from the
CBOT, Steidlmayer/CBOT defined the EOD Market Profile Value Area as the most traded 70%
of a days cleared volume. Since other markets did not release the LDB type clearing
data, we at CISCO developed a capability to measure value for all markets (CBOT
and the other exchanges), using
tick based data. The CISCO Tick-TPO or Meta-Profile provides (day) value measurement for
both EOD and intra-day. (When you buy Market Profile from a data service,
chances are you are getting Meta-Profile). CISCO also defined a multi-day profile related
concept, the Overlay Demand Curve, that permits the analysis of value in the
multi-day timeframe. Since value is much more stable than price,
the trader can now understand if a market is in balance (value not
changing) or if it is trending (value is changing). This is exactly the data a
trader needs in developing trading decisions.
CISCO plays a dual role in trader's lives. First, we are a research organization
with more free educational material on our site than can be found anywhere
else in the world. Although a private enterprise, we are much like
a free university or research institute, openly sharing our findings (go to the
Reference link on our home page). We also
offer inexpensive and cost effective educational courses for traders.
Secondly, we are a sophisticated
data source for active traders. We guide you to a market's value. Our research
tells us that following value and
value change offers the best path for trader success; so we create the necessary
data.
1. The Raw Beginner barely knows what a future or derivative is. Also,
he (she) is naive enough to believe that someone
has a trading model that consistently beats the market, and furthermore,
that someone will sell the beginner said model. (Pause for a commonsense
moment: If you owned a model that was a consistent winner it could make
you rich. Would you go out beating the bushes for someone to sell it to
or would you use it to get rich?
This person needs orientation. A good start can be found at:
www.rb-trading.com/begin.html
This introduction came from the late Bruce Babcock. Bruce got into trading
in 1979 and was one of the early students of trading models and systems.
Many futures brokerages offer free starting kits, e.g.
www.gptc.com/freeoffers_google.htm
Just be advised that brokerages make their money from fees and a broker's job
is to get you trading as soon as possible. Those who trade before they know
what they are doing are the primary source of the horrible statistic
that 95 percent of new traders lose.
Wall Street Journal contains a 'Futures' page, Monday through Thursday. This is
good for following prices, getting a feel for markets. You will see the variety
of futures traded (grains, interest rates, indexes, metals, energy, etc.).
Many beginners come to the CISCO page because of our work on value trading, often
called 'Market Profile'. Market Profile was a product of the CBOT back in 1985,
showing day value. A survey of the literature is found at:
Value Analytics Lookup Tables
A glossary of terms:
Auction Markets Glossary
or
www.excelfutures.com/commodity_futures_trading_commis.htm
The futures exchanges have instructional web pages and booklets. Particularly thorough are:
www.cbot.com and www.cme.com
Both exchanges have a goodly amount of basic market information.
Books are available from many sources. Beware. For each
good book there are a hundred poor ones. Keep in mind that one trades on value,
not price.
When you actually get to the point
of being serious about trading you can look at Mind Over Markets by Dalton, Jones
and Dalton. This is about finding day value. Get this book from Amazon.com.
The more advanced CISCO book, Value Based Power Trading, is on our website. This
book is about multiple day value, i.e. market balance. There is no charge to
access this book. Hard copies are available from CISCO for $45.
Value Based Power Trading
The CISCO website's free research information is primarily at
two main entrys: Background Reading and Free Stuff, both on the
home page (under the flag).
http://www.cisco-futures.com/
Also, each data entry on the CISCO website offers a Sample of the data and
an explanation of it in the Background section.
Training courses offered in futures are many and varied. In most cases the
course is a good deal;
for the person who sells it to you. At this level you cannot discriminate, or
even know what you need. Save your money for a while, learn about markets before
you try to trade or pay for trading information.
You must get yourself oriented from the sources above. Learn what a futures contract
is, how it is priced and how it is handled in trading. The exchange pages are good
for this. For a specific future, look up the 'Contract Specifications'. Then track
the price of several futures daily. See how they vary, how much
money is involved. Lastly, make yourself familiar with the trading culture. Visit
some websites with trading rooms. Stand back and see how value develops out
of a lot of price movement. You are now ready for step 2. below.
2. The Beginner has been around six months or so. It is starting to
sink in that
the trading environment is rife with people who will sell you their secrets.
Again this is
a good deal; for them, not you. Actually,
your need now is to understand the details of market behavior. Few offer that.
CISCO does, and as noted above,
you can find much market related material on this website for free.
For success, you need
to master just two concepts: (1) market
analysis depends on value and (if you area swing (breakout) trader) (2) your
job as a trader is to catch a trade as it
emerges from congestion (breaks out of value (congestion)) and exit when the
market returns to the congestion mode (value has stopped changing). Or if you
want to be a responsive trader (2) your job as a trader is to know the value
limits, the support and resistance. Then you sell tops and buy bottoms.
Both (1) and (2) are easy to say, but learning just how to get that job
done is very difficult.
To begin to understand (1) and (2) use these links:
Finding value for a market day: (short term support and resistance)
Market/Meta Profiles Background
To find longer term market value (3, 5, 9, 15,... days): (short term support and resistance)
Overlay Demand Curve Intro
Within a day, find congestions and directional moves:
Introduction to Day trading
If understanding your market makes sense to you, CISCO offers inexpensive
training courses for day traders and swing traders. These courses teach you
how markets work and how to read them. These courses do not "make a trader"
out of you--you are the only one who can do that (see the Trading Model
Development link below).
ShortHomestudy Page
Long Homestudy Page
This is a good point to learn more specifically how CISCO's material can
help you.
Users Guide to the CISCO Website
3. Active Traders have been trading over a year. You are a survivor.
You know there are
no 'secrets' and if there were, they would be worth much, much more than the
$200, or $3,000 or $40,000 being asked by sellers of such market secrets. What you need is a little
help in
improving your trading; your timing. For most successful traders a tweak here and a tweak
there can give a big improvement in returns. If you are not already factoring
value into your trading, you might want to learn how it can help you.
You may benefit from the research in the CISCO Background Reading section, as
well as the information discussed above.
http://www.cisco-futures.com/
The article Trading Model Development can possibly give you some new slants.
You also might benefit from our courses.
Trading Model Development
ShortHomestudy Page
Long Homestudy Page
In any case, as a veteran you are in a position to evaluate your needs. The
CISCO site can be a valuable resource for you whether you subscribe to our
data or not.
CISCO offers a course of study, SC2, for traders. This intensive path takes a beginner
through to the point where he or she can make and analyze trade setups.
SC2:
1. Works within Auction Market Value Theory (it starts with Value).
2. Covers all markets. On any day the trader can focus on those markets with potential.
3. Streamlined learning based on setups rapidly builds market familiarity.
4. This Theory, Application and Practice methodology is logical, valid and learnable.
5. SC2 treats the market as it is, not as it is imagined to be by analysts.
6. Cost is minimal.
To learn about SC2, go to the link below (this link is also on CISCO's main page).
CISCO Short Course SC2
4. Limitations on Analysis
Any measurement depends on the quality of the data. Statisticians are concerned with sample size, knowing
that a too small or poorly chosen sample will give unreliable results. In our analysis of market data, say
ticks, we are sampling a market. Value for a day, for instance, is the central 70 percent of the TPOs. How
many TPOs are needed? How many TPOs will make the cluster (quasi-bell) a reliable sample? TPOs come from
ticks and as a starting point we count ticks. Restated, how many ticks are required for an adequate sample?
A simple rule of thumb minimum is 200 ticks per day. In a four hour market this is about a tick per minute.
A 200 ticks per day market will have extended periods of inactivity. A more reasonable cutoff is in the
neighborhood of 500 ticks per day (about 2 ticks per minute average). Typically, there are about 60 deliveries
with 500 or more ticks per day. Extending down to 200 ticks brings in another 20 deliveries. Tradeables of 80 deliveries
contrasts with the some 250 contracts we cover.
It is easy to be fooled by a bar chart of a thin market. For example, the grains often will trade heavily in
July and December (old crop, new crop) the October (e.g. soybean oil) may have little activity. However, the
the high - low price range will approximate the heavier traded deliveries. Why? Arbitrage. The exchange posts the
opening and closing prices to keep all deliveries in line. Even if there were no trades, a bar chart would show
a range for the day. For there to be a valid auction for you to trade, you must have volume, someone to take
the other side.
For more advanced beginning information, go to:
Meta-Profile for Day Trading