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Day Trading Engine Flow 2


Donald L. Jones
Copyright CISCO Futures August 10, 2009




The Auction Market Flow Table, Example 2

A critical asset for any day trader is market understanding. While this statement may seem self-evident, the simple fact is that very few traders have even a passing feel for the markets they trade. This is evidenced by so much reliance on charts, on technical indicators and on esoterics like Gann, Fibonacci and Elliott Wave.

Any trading methodology that is not based on market features, market elements, is doomed. This is evidenced by the quoted failure rate for new traders of 95 percent. Virtually everyone starts out with indicators and charts. Virtually everyone fails. Those who spend the time and effort to understand value stand a far better chance, as our Testimonials confirm.
CISCO Testimonials

Value Based trading is rooted in market understanding, a significant part of which is the ability to discern the market's 'flow'. The data for our flow measures comes from the CISCO Visual Graphics analytical tool. VG for trade set-up is the most used of all CISCO trading tools.

This article is about the actual practice of flow recognition. The companion article is on the details of capturing 'Flow'.
daytradingengine_flow_example1

The ability to recognize Flow, as obtained from the Visual Graphics reference points, gives a trader guidance for "staying with the market". The Flow measurements' utility is in increasing the odds for making a successful trade. A measure of Flow predictive success can be found in Table 2 and Table 2H. It is clear from these two tables that the flow algorithm, based on the Visual Graphic has a strong predilection for divining Flow correctly.

This exercise lists a set of Flow Tables starting with Table 1 from the Example 1 report and going through the movement of the Emini SP through the spectacular recovery that, coincidentally, began about when the Day Trading Engine was taking shape.

To join the two reports, start with the two Visual Graphic reports for the first Flow Table (Table 1) in Example 1. This is followed by a series of succeeding Flow Tables. These tables are for practice of reading the Flow from the Flow Tables (which comes from the Day Trading Engine via the Visual Graphic Report).
Visual Graphic: UU 20090710

Visual Graphic: UU 20090713

Examples of reading/deciphering the Flow Tables is in Example 1.

The game: Find the net flow on the last three days, predict the direction of the market for the next day.


From Table 1.

Ex:   Date  Directional UP DN  Activity GT SM
    Jul  9               8  3            1  4
        10               3  8            4  1
        13               7  4            3  2

Two days prior to Jul 13: Directional is net 0, Activity is net 0.
As of July 10 the market is in balance (info from Advice Engine).

There is no preferential flow direction, so await a breakout on Jul 13.


Ex:   Date  Directional UP DN  Activity GT SM
        10               3  8            4  1
        13               7  4            3  2
        14               8  2            2  3
Net Directional: 18 up, 14 down: Activity 9 GT, 6 SM
Net Flow Preference: Up.




Table 1.

 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09  

           07 13 09   07 10 09   07 09 09

Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x              x        x   
 High          x              x        x   
 Low           x              x        x   
 Close         x              x        x   
 PT of CTL     x              x        x   
 v-A UPR          x        x           x  
 v-A LWR       x           x           x   
 IB UPR        x              x           x  
 IB LWR           x           x           x   
 IB UPR POC       x        x           x   
 IB LWR POC       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE      89550       87425       87900

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x        x              x
 Volatility       x        x              x
 IB Range      x           x           x
 TDE FACIL     x           x              x
 v-A Range     x              x           x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       U           U           D 
 VAr Dir       H           L           H

Goal of Market Flow Table:
 To gain a subjective view of the recent market.
 1. Reference points for market directionality.
 2. Information on gain or loss of market activity.
 3. Near term (1 day) market tendencies.

Legend: (Data from Visual Graphic)
 Group 1. Directional: Price higher, H: Price lower, L.
           From prev day except IB - POC (same day).
 Group 2. Activity: Greater, G: Smaller S.
           From prev day.
 Group 3. Predictive: Attempted direction, U = up, D = down.
                      Value Area: H, A = up: Z, L = down.
                        A and Z are 'weakly'


 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09

           07 16 09   07 15 09   07 14 09

Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x           x           x   
 High          x           x           x   
 Low           x           x           x   
 Close         x           x           x   
 PT of CTL     x           x           x   
 v-A UPR          x        x              x
 v-A LWR       x              x        x   
 IB UPR        x           x           x   
 IB LWR        x           x           x   
 IB UPR POC    x              x        x   
 IB LWR POC       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE      93575       92725       90150

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL     x              x           x
 Volatility    x              x           x
 IB Range         x           x           x
 TDE FACIL        x        x              x
 v-A Range        x        x              x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       U           U            
 VAr Dir       A           H           A




 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09

           07 21 09   07 20 09   07 17 09

Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x           x           x   
 High          x           x              x
 Low           x           x           x   
 Close         x           x           x   
 PT of CTL     x           x           x   
 v-A UPR       x           x              x
 v-A LWR       x              x        x   
 IB UPR        x           x           x   
 IB LWR        x           x           x   
 IB UPR POC    x           x           x   
 IB LWR POC       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE      95350       94900       93700

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL     x           x              x
 Volatility    x           x              x
 IB Range         x           x           x
 TDE FACIL     x           x              x
 v-A Range     x           x              x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       D                       U
 VAr Dir       A           H            




 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           07 24 09    07 23 09    07 22 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x           x              x
 High          x           x           x   
 Low           x           x           x   
 Close         x           x              x
 PT of CTL        x        x           x   
 v-A UPR       x              x        x   
 v-A LWR          x        x              x
 IB UPR        x           x           x   
 IB LWR        x           x              x
 IB POC UPR    x              x        x   
 IB POC LWR       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE      97775       96900       94950

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x        x           x   
 Volatility       x        x           x   
 IB Range      x           x           x   
 TDE FACIL        x        x              x
 v-A Range        x        x              x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       U           U           U
 VA Dir                    H           A




 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           07 27 09    07 24 09    07 23 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x           x           x   
 High          x           x           x   
 Low           x           x           x   
 Close         x           x           x   
 PT of CTL     x              x        x   
 V-A UPR       x           x              x
 V-A LWR          x           x        x   
 IB UPR        x           x           x   
 IB LWR        x           x           x   
 IB POC UPR    x           x              x
 IB POC LWR       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE      98000       97775       96900

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x           x        x   
 Volatility       x           x        x   
 IB Range      x           x           x   
 TDE FACIL        x           x        x   
 V-A Range        x           x        x   

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       D           U           U
 VA Dir        A                       H


 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           07 29 09    07 28 09    07 27 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open             x           x        x   
 High             x           x        x   
 Low              x           x        x   
 Close            x           x        x   
 PT of CTL        x           x        x   
 V-A UPR          x        x           x   
 V-A LWR       x           x              x
 IB UPR           x           x        x   
 IB LWR           x           x        x   
 IB POC UPR    x           x           x   
 IB POC LWR       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE      97500       97600       98000

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x        x              x
 Volatility       x        x              x
 IB Range      x           x           x   
 TDE FACIL        x        x              x
 V-A Range        x        x              x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir                               D
 VA Dir        Z                       A




 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           08 03 09    07 31 09    07 30 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x              X        x   
 High          x              x        x   
 Low           x              x        x   
 Close         x           x           x   
 PT of CTL     x              x        x   
 V-A UPR       x              x        x   
 V-A LWR       x           x           x
 IB UPR        x              x        x   
 IB LWR        x           x           x   
 IB POC UPR    x           x           x   
 IB POC LWR       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE     100050       98450       98225

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x        x              x 
 Volatility       x        x              x   
 IB Range         x           x        x
 TDE FACIL     x              x        x   
 V-A Range     x              x        x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       U           U           U
 VA Dir        H           Z           H



 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           08 04 09    08 03 09   
Directional    H  L        H  L   
 Open          x           x
 High          x           x
 Low           x           x
 Close         x           x      
 PT of CTL     x           x
 V-A UPR       x           x
 V-A LWR       x           x      
 IB UPR        x           x
 IB LWR        x           x      
 IB POC UPR    x           x      
 IB POC LWR       x           x    
 EOD CLOSE     100475      100050

Activity       G  S        G  S    
 TPO TOTAL     x              x       
 Volatility    x              x       
 IB Range         x           x    
 TDE FACIL        x        x    
 V-A Range        x        x    

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       U
 VA Dir        A           H       



 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           08 10 09    08 07 09    08 06 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open             x        x           x   
 High             x        x              x
 Low              x        x              x
 Close         x           x              x
 PT of CTL        x        x              x
 V-A UPR          x        x              x
 V-A LWR       x              x        x   
 IB UPR           x        x           x   
 IB LWR        x           x           x   
 IB POC UPR    x              x        x   
 IB POC LWR       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE     100750      100650      100075

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x           x        x   
 Volatility       x           x        x   
 IB Range      x           x           x   
 TDE FACIL        x        x              x
 V-A Range        x        x           x   

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       U           U           D
 VA Dir        Z           H           Z






           08 07 09    08 06 09    08 05 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x           x           x   
 High          x              x           x
 Low           x              x           x
 Close         x              x           x
 PT of CTL     x              x           x
 V-A UPR       x              x           x
 V-A LWR          x        x           x   
 IB UPR        x           x           x   
 IB LWR        x           x              x
 IB POC UPR       x        x           x   
 IB POC LWR       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE     100650       99500      100075

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x        x           x   
 Volatility       x        x           x   
 IB Range      x           x           x   
 TDE FACIL     x              x           x
 V-A Range     x           x           x   

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       U           D           D
 VA Dir        H           Z           Z



 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           08 12 09    08 11 09    08 10 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open             x           x           x
 High          x              x           x
 Low           x              x           x
 Close         x              x        x   
 PT of CTL     x              x           x
 V-A UPR       x           x              x
 V-A LWR       x              x        x   
 IB UPR        x              x           x
 IB LWR           x           x        x   
 IB POC UPR    x           x           x   
 IB POC LWR       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE     100225       99300      100750

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL     x           x              x
 Volatility    x           x              x
 IB Range         x           x           x
 TDE FACIL     x           x              x
 V-A Range     x              x           x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       U           D           U
 VA Dir        H           L           Z




 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           08 13 09    08 12 09    08 11 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x              x           x
 High          x           x              x
 Low           x           x              x
 Close         x           x              x
 PT of CTL     x           x              x
 V-A UPR          x        x           x   
 V-A LWR       x           x              x
 IB UPR        x           x              x
 IB LWR        x              x           x
 IB POC UPR    x           x           x   
 IB POC LWR       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE     101350      100225       99300

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x        x           x   
 Volatility       x        x           x   
 IB Range      x           x           x   
 TDE FACIL        x        x           x   
 V-A Range        x        x              x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir                   U           D
 VA Dir        A           H           L


 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           08 14 09    08 13 09    08 12 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x           x              x
 High             x        x           x   
 Low              x        x           x   
 Close            x        x           x   
 PT of CTL        x        x           x   
 V-A UPR       x              x        x   
 V-A LWR          x        x           x   
 IB UPR        x           x           x   
 IB LWR           x        x              x
 IB POC UPR    x           x           x   
 IB POC LWR       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE     100575      101350      100225

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x           x        x   
 Volatility       x           x        x   
 IB Range      x           x           x   
 TDE FACIL     x              x        x   
 V-A Range     x              x        x   

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       D                       U
 VA Dir        L           A           H



 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           08 18 09    08 17 09    08 14 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open             x           x        x   
 High          x              x           x
 Low           x              x           x
 Close         x              x           x
 PT of CTL     x              x           x
 V-A UPR       x              x        x   
 V-A LWR          x        x              x
 IB UPR           x           x        x   
 IB LWR        x              x           x
 IB POC UPR       x        x           x   
 IB POC LWR       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE      98950       97825      100575

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL     x              x           x
 Volatility    x              x           x
 IB Range      x           x           x   
 TDE FACIL     x              x        x   
 V-A Range     x              x        x   

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       U           D           D
 VA Dir        H           L           L


 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           08 19 09    08 18 09    08 17 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open             x           x           x
 High          x           x              x
 Low              x        x              x
 Close         x           x              x
 PT of CTL     x           x              x
 V-A UPR          x        x              x
 V-A LWR       x              x        x   
 IB UPR        x              x           x
 IB LWR           x        x              x
 IB POC UPR       x           x        x   
 IB POC LWR       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE      99700       98950       97825

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL     x           x              x
 Volatility    x           x              x
 IB Range         x           x           x
 TDE FACIL     x           x              x
 V-A Range     x           x              x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       U           U           D
 VA Dir        A           H           L



 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           08 24 09    08 21 09    08 20 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x           x           x   
 High          x           x           x   
 Low           x           x           x   
 Close            x        x           x   
 PT of CTL     x           x           x   
 V-A UPR       x           x           x   
 V-A LWR       x              x           x
 IB UPR        x           x           x   
 IB LWR        x           x           x   
 IB POC UPR    x           x           ....
 IB POC LWR    x              x           x
 EOD CLOSE     102450      102525      100475

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL     x           x              x
 Volatility    x           x              x
 IB Range         x           x           x
 TDE FACIL        x        x              x
 V-A Range     x           x              x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       D           U           U
 VA Dir        A           H           H


 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           08 27 09    08 26 09    08 25 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x              x        x   
 High          x              x        x   
 Low              x           x        x   
 Close         x           x           x   
 PT of CTL        x           x        x   
 V-A UPR       x              x        x   
 V-A LWR       x           x              x
 IB UPR           x           x        x   
 IB LWR           x           x           x
 IB POC UPR    x           x           x   
 IB POC LWR       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE     102925      102675      102600

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL     x              x        x   
 Volatility    x              x        x   
 IB Range      x           x           x   
 TDE FACIL     x           x              x
 V-A Range     x              x           x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       D           U           D
 VA Dir        Z           Z           A



 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           08 31 09    08 28 09    08 27 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open             x        x           x   
 High             x        x           x   
 Low              x        x              x
 Close            x           x        x   
 PT of CTL        x        x              x
 V-A UPR          x        x           x   
 V-A LWR          x           x        x   
 IB UPR           x        x              x
 IB LWR           x        x              x
 IB POC UPR    x           x           x   
 IB POC LWR       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE     101975      102750      102925

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x        x           x   
 Volatility       x        x           x   
 IB Range      x           x           x   
 TDE FACIL        x           x        x   
 V-A Range        x           x        x   

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       D           D           D
 VA Dir        L           A           Z


 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           09 03 09    09 02 09    09 01 09 
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x              X           X
 High          x              X        X
 Low           x              X           X
 Close         x              X           X
 PT of CTL     x              X           X
 V-A UPR       x              X        X
 V-A LWR          x           X           X
 IB UPR        x              X        X
 IB LWR        x              X        X
 IB POC UPR    x           X           X
 IB POC LWR       x           X           X
 EOD CLOSE     100175       98975       99200

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x           X        X
 Volatility       x           X        X
 IB Range      x              X        X
 TDE FACIL     x              X        X
 V-A Range     x              X        X

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       D           U           D
 VA Dir                               



 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           09 04 09  
Directional    H  L  
 Open          x     
 High          x     
 Low           x     
 Close         x     
 PT of CTL     x     
 V-A UPR          x  
 V-A LWR       x     
 IB UPR        x     
 IB LWR        x     
 IB POC UPR       x  
 IB POC LWR       x  
 EOD CLOSE     101400

Activity       G  S  
 TPO TOTAL     x     
 Volatility    x     
 IB Range      x     
 TDE FACIL     x     
 V-A Range     x     

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       U     
 VA Dir        H     


 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           09 08 09    09 04 09
Directional    H  L        H  L   
 Open          x           x      
 High          x           x      
 Low              x        x      
 Close         x           x      
 PT of CTL     x           x      
 V-A UPR       x              x   
 V-A LWR       x           x      
 IB UPR        x           x      
 IB LWR           x        x      
 IB POC UPR    x              x   
 IB POC LWR       x           x   
 EOD CLOSE     102500      101400

Activity       G  S        G  S   
 TPO TOTAL     x           x    
 Volatility    x           x
 IB Range      x           x      
 TDE FACIL        x        x      
 V-A Range     x           x      

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       D           U      
 VA Dir        A           H      


 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09
  A SUBJECTIVE view of Market Activity

           09 11 09    09 10 09    09 09 09
Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x           x           x   
 High          x           x           x   
 Low           x           x           x   
 Close            x        x           x   
 PT of CTL     x           x           x   
 V-A UPR       x              x        x   
 V-A LWR          x        x              x
 IB UPR        x           x           x   
 IB LWR        x           x           x   
 IB POC UPR    x              x        x   
 IB POC LWR    x              x           x
 EOD CLOSE     104150      104175      103250

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x           x        x   
 Volatility       x           x        x   
 IB Range      x           x           x   
 TDE FACIL        x        x           x   
 V-A Range        x        x           x   

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       D           U           U
 VA Dir        A           H           H


Testing the Flow
Market 'Flow' is an item that can depend on the timeframe chosen. On a multi-day scale, flow is synonomous with 'market condition', i.e. pausing (congesting/balancing) or running (trending or otherwise out of balance/equilibrium).

On the minimum time scale (tick to tick) flow has no meaning. On a thirty minute scale, the half hour bars of a profile often shows a congestion with runs up and down out of the congestion. Infrequently, there are rather long excursions out of the congesting region that may or may not return. For the runs that do not come back, a flow direction is defined. In this model there would need to be a definition of how far is far enough to be defined a flow and what to do about a run that returned to congestion.

In this study we choose to test on more easily understood variables; the day's High and Low. The starting point is the Close of the latest day. A predicted upward flow will be verified if the High of the following day is above the previous Close. A predicted downward flow will be verified if the Low of the following day is below the previous Close.

The test, or predicted parameter for directionality is the simple sum of the eleven Directional reference points plus the five Activity reference points. This choice recognizes activity as a kind of multiplier of market movement (with low activity there is little movement). A positive sum predicts upward flow, a negative sum predicts downward flow.

A positive agreement with prediction (Y) is achieved (1) if a NET positive sum is followed by the next day High exceeding the Close of the test day or (2) if a NET negative sum is followed by the next day low being less than the Close of the test day.

A negative agreement with prediction (N) occurs if the condition above is not met for the positive or negative prediction.

The positive or negative agreement with NET (Y or N) is posted in the FLOW column of Table 2. The Y under FLOW on 7/ 9/ 9 came from: NET = 2 predicts a positive, upward flow for the next day 7/10. The high of 7/10, 88025 is greater than the close of the previous day, 87900. Therefore FLOW = Y, (or agreement with prediction).

Results:
As of September 10, the FLOW column shows thirty nine Y's, or market behavior agreeing with the directional/activity predictions; offset by only four N's. The period was mostly up early on. The later activity was more choppy, giving a better test for the algorithm.

Table 2.

 Flow Test Validation: UU Sep 2009          

               O       H       L       C  DIR ACT NET FLOW
 7/ 9/ 9   88100   88450   87425   87900    5  -3   2    Y   1

 7/10/ 9   87175   88025   86875   87425   -5   3  -2    Y   2

 7/13/ 9   87525   89775   86550   89550    3   1   4    Y   3

 7/14/ 9   90300   91275   89250   90150    7  -5   2    Y   4

 7/15/ 9   91175   93075   90850   92725    5  -1   4    Y   5

 7/16/ 9   92475   94075   92100   93575    7  -1   6    Y   6

 7/17/ 9   93050   93875   92800   93700    3  -5  -2    N   1

 7/20/ 9   94250   94925   93700   94900    7   3  10    Y   7

 7/21/ 9   95275   95550   94925   95350    9   3  12    Y   8

 7/22/ 9   95025   95675   94450   95000    1   1   2    Y   9

 7/23/ 9   95450   97650   95025   96900    5   5  10    Y  10

 7/24/ 9   97150   97900   96250   97775    5  -3   2    Y  11

 7/27/ 9   97825   98400   96900   98000    7  -3   4    Y  12

 7/28/ 9   97275   98150   96600   97600   -5   5   0   

 7/29/ 9   97000   97500   97350   97500   -7  -3 -10    N   2

 7/30/ 9   98175   99400   97600   98225    9   1  10    Y  13

 7/31/ 9   98600   99050   97825   98450   -3  -1  -4    Y  14

 8/ 3/ 9   99450  100175   98325  100050    9  -1   8    Y  15

 8/ 4/ 9   99275  100525  100400  100475    9  -1   8    N   3

 8/ 5/ 9  100375  100075   99725  100075   -3  -3   0   

 8/ 6/ 9  100450   99575   99425   99500   -1   3   2    Y  16

 8/ 7/ 9   99375  101600   99000  100650    5   1   6    Y  17

 8/10/ 9  100450  100775   99825  100750   -3  -3  -6    Y  18

 8/11/ 9  100375   99325   99175   99300    5   3   8    Y  19

 8/12/ 9   99150  101125   98375  100225    9   5  14    Y  20

 8/13/ 9  101225  101400  101250  101350    9  -3   6    Y  21

 8/14/ 9  101325  101575   99225  100575   -3   1  -2    Y  22

 8/17/ 9   98225   99825   97550   97825   -7  -5 -12    Y  23

 8/18/ 9   98375   99000   97775   98950    1   5   6    Y  24

 8/19/ 9   98025   99700   99600   99700   -1   3   2    Y  25

 8/20/ 9  100150  100775   99425  100475    8  -5   3    N   4

 8/21/ 9  101000  102700  100900  102525    7   3  10    Y  26

 8/24/ 9  102750  103500  102125  102450    9   1  10    Y  27

 8/25/ 9  103025  103800  102475  102575    5   1   6    Y  28

 8/26/ 9  102400  103200  102025  102650   -5  -1  -6    Y  29

 8/27/ 9  102650  103275  101475  102925    1   5   6    Y  30

 8/28/ 9  103400  103875  102200  102725    5   1   6    N   5

 8/31/ 9  102050  102150  101325  102050   -9  -3  -12   Y  31

 9/ 1/ 9  101500  102775   99525   99675   -1   5    4   Y  32

 9/ 2/ 9   99600   99975   99100   99375   -9  -5   -14  Y  33

 9/ 3/ 9  100200  100350   99125  100175    7   1     8  Y  34

 9/ 4/ 9  100625  101625  100000  101375    5   5    10  Y  35

 9/ 8/ 9  102550  102575  101900  102450    5   3     8  Y  36

 9/ 9/ 9  102600  103625  102325  103225    7   5    12  Y  37

 9/10/ 9  103250  104400  102750  104125    5   1     6  Y  38

 9/11/ 9  104350  104825  103800  104125    7  -3     4

Legend
 O, H, L, C:  Open, Hi, Lo, Close  
 DIR: Directional count: H - L
 ACT: Activity count:    G - S
 NET: Sum of DIR + ACT
  Predicted Flow: UP if NET positive, DN if NET negative

  Measured Flow Agreement with Prediction: FLOW = Y or N
       If NET is +, Then Y if next High greater than current Close.
       If NET is -, Then Y if next Low is less than current Close.

  NET count for Table 2:  Y = 38, N =  5
  NET count for Table 2H: Y = 13, N =  5  

  SUM for 6/16 - 9/11     Y = 51, N = 10
  Percent Correct Predictions:        83%


Table 3.

Five Day Balances from Advice Engine

  Date      ULIM    LLIM
090709     89600   86700
  0710     89200   86650
  0722     95500   93100
  0810    101400   99200
  0811    101400   99100
  0812    101400   99100
  0813    101400   99100
  0814    101100   99100
  0828    103550  102100
  0829    103550  101450

  Note on balances: A balance point is one of the few 'knowns'
  available to a trader. At balance the bulls and bears are in
  agreement. The Visual Graphic reference points are most
  meaningful here and change of condition (breakout) is most
  trustworthy. 

  Runs (trends) and pauses (balances) are irregular, driven by
  varying market forces. Most traders have an implicit belief 
  in the underlying regularity of markets, a belief that is not 
  borne out by observation. This leads to bad trading habits (the
  market was at point B and so will return to B as iron filings to
  a magnet). A look at a 3 year run of a real world market with 
  many runs and pauses (EminiSP) will display the market irregularities.

The Market Unit
Addendum
The above data, Tables 1, 2 and 3, starting July 9, has been updated daily, i.e. in real time. Tables 1H and 2H below come from a historical database. This time period, June 15 through July 8, covers market activity prior to the strong uptrend in July. The goal to validate the proposition that reference point variables from Visual Graphic is enhanced by testing a wide variety of market conditions. This data set adds to that effort.

The flow direction from the Directional and Activity reference points from Tables 1H, 2H and 3H shows 12 agreements and 4 disagreements. This is a small sample and the variance is not well defined. However, this 75 percent agreement with prediction is quite high for complex entities such as auction markets. The aim is to get the odds on the traders side. A rule of thumb is that any tool that gets two to one (66%) is valuable.

As of August 17, when this is written, the live data shows 21 agreements and 3 disagreements on predicted flow direction. So far, that is 33 correct predictions, 7 misses, or 82 percent hits.
Table 1H.
 Market Flow from Visual Graphic: UU 09 09, History


           06 16 09   06 15 09   

Directional    H  L        H  L       
 Open             x           x          
 High             x           x          
 Low              x           x          
 Close            x           x          
 PT of CTL        x           x          
 v-A UPR       x              x         
 v-A LWR       x              x             
 IB UPR           x           x         
 IB LWR           x           x          
 IB UPR POC    x           x             
 IB LWR POC    x           x       
 EOD CLOSE      89550       91950     

Activity       G  S        G  S       
 TPO TOTAL     x           x          
 Volatility    x           x          
 IB Range         x        x          
 TDE FACIL     x           x          
 v-A Range     x           x       

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       D           D           
 VAr Dir       Z           L          



           06 19 09     06 18 09    06 17 09

Directional    H  L         H  L        H  L
 Open          x            x              x           
 High          x            x              x           
 Low           x            x              x           
 Close         x            x              x
 PT of CTL     x            x              x           
 v-A UPR       x            x            x        
 v-A LWR       x            x            x             
 IB UPR        x            x              x          
 IB LWR        x            x              x           
 IB UPR POC    x            x            x           
 IB LWR POC    x               x           x        
 EOD CLOSE      91575        91325        90525      

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x           x        x           
 Volatility       x           x        x           
 IB Range         x        x           x           
 TDE FACIL        x        x               x       
 v-A Range     x              x            x       

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       D           U           U            
 VAr Dir       A           H           Z           



           06 24 09    06 23 09    06 22 09

Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x              x           x   
 High          x              x           x
 Low           x              x           x
 Close         x           x              x
 PT of CTL     x              x           x
 v-A UPR       x           x           x  
 v-A LWR       x           x           x   
 IB UPR        x              x           x  
 IB LWR        x              x           x   
 IB UPR POC    x           x           x   
 IB LWR POC       x           x        x
 EOD CLOSE      89800       89025       88850

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL     x           x           x
 Volatility    x           x           x
 IB Range      x              x        x
 TDE FACIL     x              x        x
 v-A Range     x              x        x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       U                       D 
 VAr Dir       H           Z           L



           06 29 09    06 26 09    06 25 09

Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open          x           x              x
 High          x           x           x   
 Low           x           x              x   
 Close         x              x        x   
 PT of CTL     x           x           x   
 v-A UPR       x           x           x  
 v-A LWR       x           x           x   
 IB UPR        x           x           x     
 IB LWR        x           x              x   
 IB UPR POC       x        x              x   
 IB LWR POC       x           x           x
 EOD CLOSE      92125       91400       91650

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x           x        x
 Volatility       x           x        x  
 IB Range      x              x        x
 TDE FACIL     x              x        x
 v-A Range     x              x        x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       U           U           U 
 VAr Dir       H                       A



           07 02 09    07 01 09    06 30 09

Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open             x           x        x   
 High             x        x           x  
 Low              x        x              x 
 Close            x        x              x   
 PT of CTL        x        x              x
 v-A UPR          x        x           x  
 v-A LWR          x        x           x   
 IB UPR           x        x           x  
 IB LWR           x        x           x   
 IB UPR POC    x           x           x   
 IB LWR POC       x           x        x
 EOD CLOSE      89325       91925       91550

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL        x           x        x
 Volatility       x           x        x
 IB Range      x           x           x
 TDE FACIL     x              x        x
 v-A Range     x              x        x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       D           U           D 
 VAr Dir       L           H           L



           07 08 09    07 07 09    07 06 09

Directional    H  L        H  L        H  L
 Open             x        x              x
 High             x           x           x   
 Low              x           x           x   
 Close            x           x        x   
 PT of CTL        x           x           x   
 v-A UPR       x           x              x
 v-A LWR       x           x              x   
 IB UPR           x           x           x  
 IB LWR           x        x              x   
 IB UPR POC    x           x           x   
 IB LWR POC    x           x              x
 EOD CLOSE      87375       87925       89550

Activity       G  S        G  S        G  S
 TPO TOTAL     x              x        x
 Volatility    x              x        x
 IB Range         x           x           x
 TDE FACIL        x        x              x
 v-A Range        x        x              x

 Directionally Predictive
 Att Dir       D           D           U
 VAr Dir       L           Z           L


Table 2H.
 Flow Test Validation: UU Sep 2009, History.
 06/12/09 - 07/08/09

               O       H       L       C  DIR ACT NET FLOW
 6/12/ 9   93750   94275   93125   94075          

 6/15/ 9   91975   92000   91900   91950   -7   5  -2    Y   1

 6/16/ 9   90800   90850   90675   90775    3   3   6    N   1

 6/17/ 9   90550   90675   90525   90525    5   1   6    Y   2

 6/18/ 9   91225   91375   91200   91325    9  -1   7    Y   3

 6/19/ 9   91500   92300   91075   91575   11  -3   8    N   2

 6/22/ 9   88875   88925   88775   88850   -3   5   2    Y   4

 6/23/ 9   89050   89425   88425   89025   -3  -1  -4    Y   5

 6/24/ 9   89800   90650   88950   89800    9   5  14    Y   6

 6/25/ 9   91700   91725   91575   91650    1   5   6    Y   7

 6/26/ 9   91300   91900   90850   91400    7  -5   2    Y   8

 6/29/ 9   92150   92200   92125   92125    7   1   8    N   3

 6/30/ 9   91575   91600   91525   91550    5   5  10    Y   9

 7/ 1/ 9   91575   92825   91350   91925    7  -3   4    N   4

 7/ 2/ 9   91700   91875   88900   89325    9  -1   8    Y  10

 7/ 6/ 9   89575   89600   89500   89550   -9  -1 -10    Y  11

 7/ 7/ 9   87950   87975   87775   87925    1  -1   0    

 7/ 8/ 9   87400   87600   87375   87375   -3  -1  -4    N   5

 7/ 9/ 9   87875   88450   87425   87900    5  -3   2    Y  13

Legend
 O, H, L, C:  Open, Hi, Lo, Close  
 DIR: Directional count: H - L
 ACT: Activity count:    G - S
 NET: Sum of DIR + ACT
  Predicted Flow: UP if NET positive, DN if NET negative

  Measured Flow Agreement with Prediction: FLOW = Y or N
       If NET is +, Then Y if next High greater than current Close.
       If NET is -, Then Y if next Low is less than current Close.


Table 3H.

Five Day Balances from Advice Engine, History

            ULIM    LLIM
090619     92500   90300