CISCO Futures
1-303-306-1521 1-800 800 7227 Fax 1-303-306-1572
http://www.cisco-futures.com
dljones@cisco-futures.com
Five Billion Dollar Loss on Natural Gas Trading
CISCO Futures© September 22, 2006
A hedge fund, Amaranth Advisors, has reported a trading loss in excess of
five billion dollars in trading natural gas futures and options. According
to an article in the Wall Street Journal, September 20, 2006, page C1, the
loss stemmed from a turndown in the price of natural gas. Prior to the
change in trend (from up to down, which occurred on August 1), the fund had
a reported $2 billion gain in their natural gas trade.
Evidently, the Amaranth trader was treating the futures market much as if
he were trading
equities, where the up side (long) is the preferred way to trade. Unlike
stocks, futures may be traded long or short with equal ease. Petroleums
have been strong, very strong, in the recent past. In such case, the
long side is the way to trade. However, commodities go up and they go
down. Often the fall is faster than the rise. A strong market in either
direction offers opportunity to the knowledgeable futures trader.
Following the high on August 1 there were a few days of falling prices,
with a recovery, lower high on August 25. From that point on the market
has continued to drop through the present.
Financial markets all follow the path of balance to trend to balance
to trend, etc. in a regular non-cyclic manner. Balance or trend or intermediate
points in between are known as market condition. The trader who knows
a market's condition has the foundation upon which to build a trading
strategy. A well known methodology for determining market condition is
the Overlay Demand Curve, pioneered by CISCO. In balanced markets the
Overlay provides support and resistance. In a trend, Overlays
display the run - pause nature of moving markets. Regardless of any other
considerations, the trader must align with the market, must be in concert
with the market condition as soon as the condition becomes apparent. There
is no prediction involved, just observation.
The data below looks at market structure on a five day consolidated (Overlay)
basis, day by day from August 16 through September 7. During this period
the natural gas market experienced a down trend going into balance on
August 17; then a short up trend that quickly terminated into a balance
that held for five days through August 25. August 28 was another down day
that ended in the bottom prices but also showed a three day grouping.
A down trend began in earnest on August 29,
terminating in balance on September 5, by the end of the day. A new down
trend began on September 7 and continues through this writing. Since
September 6, price has fallen 27 percent (8019 to 5881, November delivery).
The battle between the long and short sides is apparent in the table. The
market fundamentals, whatever they were, were net down the entire period.
But the traders, the herd, fought the inevitable. Over the fifteen day period,
the table shows the struggle. The five days from August 21 shows the strength
of the market's (public, probably) belief in a continuation of the earlier
very strong rise. The last gasp of the bulls was on August 25 when a new
local high was hit. From there on, the herd has stampeded, but in the opposite
direction, down.
Any knowledgeable trader who has learned how to combine meta-profiles
into Overlays (data available on the CISCO site, and others, too) could
access
and use these end-of-day displays as a basis for a trading strategy.
An understanding of
market condition is the starting point for all trading decisions.
For instance,
at the close of August 28, natural gas was in an uneasy balance (9020 - 8840). The
following day, August 29, saw a downside breakout at 8830. Let us imagine
that we (presumably like the Amaranth trader) entered the day long. No
matter what other strategy we might have, we would exit our long on the
change of market condition from balance to down. This is Trading 101.
If Amaranth's trader had simply aligned himself with the market's condition
he doubtless would have saved his firm a few billion dollars. It is quite
possible even, that he could have maintained at least a part of his earlier
$2 billion gain and avoided the $5 billion loss altogether.
Overlay Tracking of the $5 Billion Natural Gas Trade
August 16 through September 7, 2006
Summary Table: Actual Overlays for each day are listed below the table.
The track: Market Condition: End of Day
August 16 Down trend, 3 nodes, Balancing 3 day 8890 - 8640
August 17 4 Day balance 8910 - 8640
August 18 Up trend, balancing 9120 - 8640
August 21 Balancing 9120 - 8650
August 22 Balancing 9120 - 8650
August 23 Balancing 9200 - 8660
August 24 Balancing 9250 - 8740
August 25 Balancing 9650 - 8750 (migratory but continuous)
August 28 Down trend, 3 nodes, Balancing 3 day 9020 - 8840
August 29 Breakout down 8830
August 30 Trend down, 3 nodes
August 31 Trend down, 3 nodes
September 1 Trend down, 3 nodes
September 5 Trend down, 1 nodes, 4 day balance 8270 - 8000
September 6 Balance 8270 - 7980
September 7 Trend down, breakout at 7970
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 August 16
Yesterday:
Today EOD: Down trend, 3 nodes, Balancing
(Overlay days are: 1 = latest, 2 = next back, and so on with 5 being earliest)
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
9450 3 2 55
9440 1 2 55
9430 3 2 55
9420 4 3 555
9410 4 3 555
9400 3 3 555
9390 1 2 55
9380 1 3 555
9350 1 3 555
9320 3 3 555
9300 4 4 5555 August 16
9290 3 3 555
9280 3 5 55555 Prior Down Trend
9270 1 3 555
9260 4 4 5555
9250 5 4 5555
9240 1 3 555
9230 1 3 555
9220 2 2 55
9180 2 1 4
9160 1 1 4
9140 3 1 4
9120 1 1 4
9110 2 2 44
9100 1 2 44
9080 4 4 4444
9070 3 4 1444
9060 7 4 1444
9050 7 5 14444
9040 5 4 1444
9030 2 4 1444
9010 4 4 1144
8980 5 3 114
8960 4 3 111
8950 2 2 11
8940 2 2 11
8900 2 1 1
8890 4 3 112
8880 3 3 112
8870 5 3 112
8860 6 4 1122
8850 7 7 1222223
8820 7 8 11122223
8810 8 10 1112222233
8800 8 8 11222233
8790 12 8 11222333
8780 10 9 112222333 3 Day Balance
8770 11 8 11222333
8740 2 6 111333
8730 3 6 111333
8720 4 6 111333
8700 7 7 1113333
8690 2 5 11333
8670 3 4 1333
8650 7 5 13333
8640 5 4 1333
8630 2 2 33
8620 1 2 33
8610 4 1 3
8600 2 1 3
8550 3 1 3
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 August 17
Yesterday: Dn trend, 3 nodes, Balancing
Today EOD: 4 Day balance 8910 - 8640
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
9180 2 1 5
9160 1 1 5
9140 3 1 5
9120 1 1 5
9110 2 2 55
9100 1 2 55
9080 4 4 5555
9070 3 4 2555
9060 7 4 2555
9050 7 5 25555
9040 5 4 2555
9030 2 4 2555
9010 4 4 2255
8980 5 3 225
8960 4 3 222
8950 3 3 122
8940 2 2 22
8920 1 2 11
8910 4 3 111
8900 10 5 11112
8890 9 7 1111223
8880 5 6 111223
8870 10 6 111223
8860 8 6 112233
8850 13 10 1112333334
8820 10 10 1122233334
8810 11 12 112223333344 August 17
8800 13 10 1122333344
8790 15 10 1122333444 Balance Region
8780 16 12 111223333444
8770 16 11 11122333444
8740 8 9 111222444
8730 10 9 111222444
8720 7 8 11222444
8700 8 8 12224444
8690 2 5 22444
8670 3 4 2444
8660 5 4 1444
8650 8 6 124444
8640 5 4 2444
8630 2 2 44
8620 1 2 44
8610 4 1 4
8600 2 1 4
8550 3 1 4
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 August 18
Yesterday: 4 Day balance 8910 - 8640
Today EOD: Up trend, balancing 9120 - 8640
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
9300 1 1 1
9270 2 1 1
9250 1 1 1
9240 2 1 1
9230 1 1 1
9220 10 2 11
9210 1 2 11
9200 9 2 11
9180 6 2 11
9150 1 2 11
9120 1 3 111
9100 3 5 11111
9090 4 5 11111
9080 5 5 11111 August 18
9070 5 6 111113
9060 4 5 11113 Strong up day
9050 3 4 1113 but closed in balance
9020 5 4 1133 (single distribution)
8980 3 5 11133
8970 2 4 1113
8960 7 6 111333
8950 10 7 1111233
8940 7 6 111133
8930 3 4 1111
8920 7 6 111122
8910 6 5 11222
8900 12 7 1122223
8890 9 7 2222334
8880 7 9 111222334
8860 9 9 111223344
8850 13 10 2223444445
8820 12 11 12233344445
8810 12 13 1223334444455
8800 15 11 12233444455
8790 15 10 2233444555
8780 16 12 222334444555
8770 16 11 22233444555
8740 8 9 222333555
8730 10 9 222333555
8720 7 8 22333555
8710 6 5 22333
8700 8 8 23335555
8690 2 5 33555
8670 3 4 3555
8660 5 4 2555
8650 8 6 235555
8640 5 4 3555
8630 2 2 55
8620 1 2 55
8610 4 1 5
8600 2 1 5
8550 3 1 5
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 August 21
Yesterday: Up trend, balancing 9120 - 8640
Today EOD: Balancing 9120 - 8650
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
9300 1 1 2
9270 2 1 2
9250 1 1 2
9240 2 1 2
9230 1 1 2
9220 10 2 22
9210 1 2 22
9200 9 2 22
9180 6 2 22
9150 1 2 22
9120 1 3 222
9100 3 5 22222
9090 4 5 22222 August 21
9080 5 5 22222
9070 5 6 222224
9060 4 5 22224
8980 3 5 22244 Consolidating
8960 7 6 222444
8950 10 7 2222344
8940 7 6 222244
8900 17 10 1112233334
8890 15 11 11113333445
8880 10 13 1111222333445
8870 14 10 1111333445
8860 19 13 1111222334455
8850 20 13 1111333455555
8820 13 13 1112334445555
8810 11 14 11123344455555
8800 16 11 11233445555
8780 15 10 1333445555
8770 15 9 133344555
8750 10 8 11333444
8740 11 9 111333444
8730 9 6 333444
8720 6 5 33444
8710 6 5 33444
8700 6 6 113444
8660 4 3 113
8650 4 3 134
8640 2 2 14
8630 1 1 1
8610 1 1 1
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 August 22
Yesterday: Balancing 9120 - 8650
Today EOD: Balancing 9120 - 8650
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
9300 1 1 3
9270 2 1 3
9250 1 1 3
9240 2 1 3
9230 1 1 3
9220 10 2 33
9210 1 2 33
9200 9 2 33
9180 6 2 33
9150 1 2 33
9120 1 3 333
9100 3 5 33333
9090 4 5 33333
9080 5 5 33333
9070 5 6 333335
9060 5 6 133335
9050 4 5 13335
9020 6 5 13355
8980 7 8 11133355
8970 5 8 11113335
8950 15 12 111113333455
8940 11 11 11111333355
8930 4 9 111113333
8920 9 11 11111333344
8900 23 17 11111112223344445 August 22
8890 16 15 111112222444455
8880 13 17 11111222233344455 Consolidating
8870 16 13 1111222244455
8860 18 15 111122223334455
8850 19 12 111122224445
8840 6 10 1112223334
8830 8 8 11222233
8820 10 9 222344555
8810 10 10 1222344555
8800 13 8 12234455
8780 10 7 1244455
8770 11 6 244455
8750 10 8 22444555
8740 11 9 222444555
8730 9 6 444555
8720 6 5 44555
8710 6 5 44555
8700 6 6 224555
8660 4 3 224
8650 4 3 245
8640 2 2 25
8630 1 1 2
8610 1 1 2
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 August 23
Yesterday: Balancing 9120 - 8650
Today EOD: Balancing 9200 - 8660
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
9300 1 1 4
9270 2 1 4
9250 1 1 4
9240 2 1 4
9230 1 1 4
9220 10 2 44
9210 1 2 44
9200 10 3 144
9180 8 3 144
9150 3 4 1144
9120 5 7 1111444
9100 8 9 111144444
9090 7 8 11144444
9080 8 7 1144444
9070 11 8 11144444
9060 7 7 1124444
8980 7 8 11222444
8970 5 9 112222444
8950 14 11 12222244445
8940 9 9 222224444
8930 4 9 222224444
8920 9 11 22222444455
8900 21 16 2222222333445555 August 23
8890 13 13 2222233335555
8880 12 15 222223333444555 Consolidating
8870 13 11 22223333555
8860 17 13 2222333344455
8850 18 11 22223333555
8840 6 10 2223334445
8830 8 8 22333344
8820 8 6 333455
8810 7 7 2333455
8800 12 6 233455
8780 8 5 23555
8770 6 4 3555
8750 7 5 33555
8740 10 6 333555
8730 7 3 555
8700 4 3 335
8660 4 3 335
8650 2 2 35
8640 1 1 3
8630 1 1 3
8610 1 1 3
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 August 24
Yesterday: Balancing 9200 - 8660
Today EOD: Balancing 9250 - 8740
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
9310 2 1 1
9300 1 1 5
9270 3 3 115
9260 2 2 11
9250 4 4 1115
9240 8 6 111115
9230 5 6 111115
9220 22 7 1111155
9210 11 10 1111111155
9200 27 10 1111111255 August 23
9180 11 7 1111255
9120 5 7 2222555 Upside thrust new local high
9100 8 9 222255555
9090 7 8 22255555
9080 8 7 2255555
9070 11 8 22255555
9060 7 7 2235555
9050 2 4 3555
9020 4 5 22355
9010 2 4 2222
8990 3 5 22255
8980 7 8 22333555
8970 5 9 223333555
8950 13 10 2333335555
8940 9 9 333335555
8930 4 9 333335555
8920 8 9 333335555
8900 13 12 333333344455
8890 8 9 333334444
8880 10 12 333334444555
8870 8 8 33334444
8860 15 11 33334444555
8850 12 8 33334444
8840 5 9 333444555
8830 8 8 33444455
8820 5 4 4445
8810 4 5 34445
8800 7 4 3445
8740 4 3 444
8700 3 2 44
8660 2 2 44
8650 1 1 4
8640 1 1 4
8630 1 1 4
8610 1 1 4
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 August 25
Yesterday: Balancing 9250 - 8740
Today EOD: Balancing 9650 - 8750
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
9650 27 3 111
9600 13 3 111
9550 7 3 111
9500 14 5 11111
9450 21 5 11111
9250 40 10 2222222222 August 25
9200 32 9 222222233
9150 14 6 223333 New high, but consolidating
9100 26 8 33333333
8950 13 7 3444444
8900 49 12 444444445555
8850 28 9 444455555
8800 10 4 4555
8750 6 3 555
8700 5 2 55
8650 4 1 5
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 August 28
Yesterday: Balancing 9650 - 8750
Today EOD: Balancing 9250 - 8840
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
9670 1 1 2
9650 1 1 2
9640 7 3 222
9630 6 3 222
9620 4 3 222
9610 8 3 222
9600 7 3 222
9530 4 3 222
9500 4 3 222
9480 3 3 222
9470 3 3 222
9460 3 4 2222
9450 7 4 2222
9440 5 4 2222
9430 5 3 222
9410 1 3 222
9400 3 2 22
9390 1 1 2
9310 2 1 3
9300 2 1 2
9270 1 2 33
9260 2 2 33
9250 3 3 333 ULIM
9240 6 5 33333
9230 4 5 33333
9220 12 5 33333
9210 10 8 33333333
9200 18 8 33333334
9190 6 5 33333
9180 5 5 33334
9150 4 4 3344
9140 1 3 444
9130 2 3 444
9120 4 4 4444
9110 3 4 4444 August 28
9100 5 4 4444
9090 3 3 444 Balance
9070 8 3 444
9060 5 3 445
9020 4 4 1445
9010 3 6 114444
9000 13 8 11111444
8990 11 12 111111111444
8980 14 14 11111111144555
8970 8 13 1111111445555
8950 10 10 1111455555
8940 7 9 111155555
8930 8 9 111155555
8920 5 9 111155555
8900 11 10 1115555555
8880 7 7 1155555
8870 4 4 5555
8860 4 4 5555
8850 4 4 5555
8840 1 3 555 LLIM
8830 3 2 55
8810 1 1 5
8800 3 1 5
8790 2 1 5
8780 1 1 5
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 August 29
Yesterday: Balancing 9250 - 8840
Today EOD: Breakout down 8830
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
9670 1 1 3
9650 1 1 3
9640 7 3 333
9630 6 3 333
9620 4 3 333
9610 8 3 333
9600 7 3 333
9530 4 3 333
9500 4 3 333
9480 3 3 333
9470 3 3 333
9460 3 4 3333
9450 7 4 3333
9440 5 4 3333
9430 5 3 333
9410 1 3 333
9400 3 2 33
9380 9 3 333
9310 2 1 4
9300 2 1 3
9270 1 2 44
9260 2 2 44
9250 3 3 444
9240 6 5 44444
9230 4 5 44444
9220 12 5 44444
9210 10 8 44444444
9200 18 8 44444445
9190 6 5 44444
9180 5 5 44445
9150 4 4 4455
9140 1 3 555
9130 2 3 555
9120 4 4 5555
9110 3 4 5555
9100 5 4 5555
9090 3 3 555
9070 8 3 555
9060 4 2 55
9050 1 1 2
9020 3 3 255
9010 3 6 225555
9000 13 8 22222555
8990 11 12 222222222555
8980 10 11 22222222255
8970 5 9 222222255
8960 5 7 2222255
8950 5 5 22225
8940 3 4 2222
8930 8 5 12222
8920 3 4 2222
8910 4 4 2222
8900 5 3 222
8880 2 2 22
8810 1 1 1
8800 2 1 1
8780 1 2 11
8750 5 6 111111
8720 2 4 1111 Breakout
8710 1 4 1111
8700 6 6 111111
8690 5 7 1111111
8680 8 7 1111111
8670 8 7 1111111
8660 5 5 11111
8650 5 4 1111
8640 5 2 11
8630 4 2 11
8620 3 2 11
8610 2 1 1
8600 2 1 1
8570 1 1 1
8550 1 1 1
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 August 30
Yesterday: Breakout down 8830
Today EOD: Trend down, 3 nodes
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
9670 1 1 4
9650 1 1 4
9640 7 3 444
9630 6 3 444
9620 4 3 444
9610 8 3 444
9600 7 3 444
9530 4 3 444
9500 4 3 444
9480 3 3 444
9470 3 3 444
9460 3 4 4444
9450 7 4 4444
9440 5 4 4444
9430 5 3 444
9410 1 3 444
9400 3 2 44
9380 9 3 444
9310 2 1 5
9300 2 1 54
9270 1 2 55
9260 2 2 55
9250 3 3 555
9240 6 5 55555
9230 4 5 55555
9220 12 5 55555
9210 10 8 55555555
9200 17 7 5555555
9190 6 5 55555
9180 3 4 5555
9150 2 2 55
9050 1 1 3
9020 2 1 3
9010 1 2 33
9000 8 5 33333
8990 9 9 333333333
8980 8 9 333333333
8970 4 7 3333333
8960 4 5 33333
8950 4 4 3333
8940 3 4 3333
8930 8 5 23333
8920 3 4 3333
8910 4 4 3333
8900 5 3 333
8880 2 2 33
8810 1 1 2 Breakout Aug 29
8800 2 1 2
8780 1 2 22
8750 5 6 222222
8720 2 4 2222
8710 1 4 2222
8700 6 6 222222
8690 5 7 2222222
8680 8 7 2222222
8670 8 7 2222222
8660 5 5 22222
8650 5 4 2222
8640 5 2 22
8630 4 2 22
8620 3 2 22
8610 2 1 2
8600 2 1 2
8570 1 1 2
8550 1 1 2
8480 1 1 1
8440 5 4 1111
8430 4 4 1111
8420 11 7 1111111
8410 10 6 111111
8400 9 7 1111111
8390 8 6 111111
8380 9 6 111111
8370 8 6 111111
8360 9 6 111111
8350 6 4 1111
8340 1 3 111
8330 2 3 111
8320 3 3 111
8310 1 2 11
8300 5 2 11
8260 10 3 111
8250 4 3 111
8240 8 3 111
8230 3 1 1
8220 1 1 1
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 August 31
Yesterday: Trend down, 2 nodes
Today EOD: Trend down, 3 nodes
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
9670 1 1 5
9650 1 1 5
9640 7 3 555
9630 6 3 555
9620 4 3 555
9610 8 3 555
9600 7 3 555
9530 4 3 555
9500 4 3 555
9480 3 3 555
9470 3 3 555
9460 3 4 5555
9450 7 4 5555
9440 5 4 5555
9430 5 3 555
9410 1 3 555
9400 3 2 55
9380 9 3 555
9300 2 1 5
9050 1 1 4
9020 2 1 4
9010 1 2 44
9000 8 5 44444
8990 9 9 444444444
8980 8 9 444444444
8970 4 7 4444444
8960 4 5 44444
8950 4 4 4444
8940 3 4 4444
8930 8 5 34444
8920 3 4 4444
8910 4 4 4444
8900 5 3 444
8880 2 2 44
8810 1 1 3 Breakout Aug 29
8800 2 1 3
8780 1 2 33
8750 5 6 333333
8720 2 4 3333
8710 1 4 3333
8700 6 6 333333
8690 5 7 3333333
8680 8 7 3333333
8670 8 7 3333333
8660 5 5 33333
8650 5 4 3333
8640 5 2 33
8630 4 2 33
8620 3 2 33
8610 2 1 3
8600 2 1 3
8570 1 1 3
8550 1 1 3
8480 1 1 2
8440 5 4 2222
8430 4 4 2222
8420 11 7 2222222
8410 10 6 222222
8400 9 7 2222222
8390 8 6 222222
8380 9 6 222222
8370 8 6 222222
8360 9 6 222222
8350 6 4 2222
8340 1 3 222
8330 2 3 222
8320 3 3 222
8300 6 3 122
8280 3 2 11
8270 7 4 1112
8260 20 7 1111222
8250 12 7 1111222
8240 14 7 1111222
8230 14 9 111111112
8220 10 7 1111112
8210 3 6 111111
8200 14 9 111111111
8190 7 7 1111111
8180 6 6 111111
8170 7 6 111111
8160 4 2 11
8150 5 2 11
8140 3 1 1
8130 3 1 1
8120 5 1 1
8100 2 1 1
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 September 1
Yesterday: Trend down, 3 nodes
Today EOD: Trend down, 3 nodes
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
9050 1 1 5
9020 2 1 5
9010 1 2 55
9000 8 5 55555
8990 9 9 555555555
8980 8 9 555555555
8970 4 7 5555555
8960 4 5 55555
8950 4 4 5555
8940 3 4 5555
8930 8 5 45555
8920 3 4 5555
8910 4 4 5555
8900 5 3 555
8880 2 2 55
8810 1 1 4 Breakout Aug 29
8800 2 1 4
8780 1 2 44
8750 5 6 444444
8720 2 4 4444
8710 1 4 4444
8700 6 6 444444
8690 5 7 4444444
8680 8 7 4444444
8670 8 7 4444444
8660 5 5 44444
8650 5 4 4444
8640 5 2 44
8630 4 2 44
8620 3 2 44
8610 2 1 4
8600 2 1 4
8570 1 1 4
8550 1 1 4
8480 1 1 3
8440 5 4 3333
8430 4 4 3333
8420 11 7 3333333
8410 10 6 333333
8400 9 7 3333333
8390 8 6 333333
8380 9 6 333333
8370 8 6 333333
8360 9 6 333333
8350 6 4 3333
8340 1 3 333
8330 2 3 333
8320 3 3 333
8300 6 3 233
8280 3 2 22
8270 7 4 2223
8260 20 7 2222333
8250 12 7 2222333
8240 14 7 2222333
8230 14 9 222222223
8220 10 7 2222223
8210 4 7 1222222
8200 14 9 222222222
8190 7 7 2222222
8180 6 6 222222
8170 8 7 1222222
8160 7 4 1122
8150 8 4 1122
8140 7 4 1112
8130 11 6 111112
8120 8 6 111112
8110 5 6 111111
8100 11 7 1111112
8090 6 5 11111
8080 7 5 11111
8070 6 5 11111
8060 12 6 111111
8050 5 4 1111
8040 3 3 111
8030 9 3 111
8020 9 1 1
8010 5 1 1
8000 5 1 1
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 September 5
Yesterday: Trend down, 3 nodes
Today EOD: Trend down, 1 node, 4 day balance 8270 - 8000
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
8480 1 1 5
8440 5 4 5555
8430 4 4 5555
8420 11 7 5555555
8410 10 6 555555
8400 9 7 5555555
8390 8 6 555555
8380 9 6 555555
8370 8 6 555555
8360 9 6 555555
8350 6 4 5555
8340 1 3 555
8330 2 3 555
8320 3 3 555
8310 1 2 55
8300 6 3 455
8280 3 2 44
8270 7 4 4445 Upper Limit
8260 20 7 4444555
8250 12 7 4444555
8240 14 7 4444555
8230 14 9 444444445
8220 10 7 4444445
8210 4 7 3444444
8200 14 9 444444444
8190 7 7 4444444
8180 6 6 444444
8170 8 7 3444444
8160 8 5 13344
8150 17 6 113344
8140 10 6 113334
8130 19 8 11333334
8120 18 11 11111333334
8110 20 11 11111333333
8100 21 12 111113333334
8090 22 11 11111133333
8080 29 13 1111111133333
8070 28 14 11111111133333
8060 38 14 11111111333333
8050 37 10 1111113333
8040 17 9 111111333
8030 28 7 1111333
8020 28 4 1113
8010 21 4 1113
8000 17 4 1113 Lower Limit
7990 1 2 11
7980 3 2 11
7970 1 1 1
7900 2 1 2
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 September 6
Yesterday: Trend down, 1 node, 4 day balance 8270 - 8000
Today EOD: Balance 8270 - 7980
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
8300 1 1 5
8280 3 2 55
8270 6 3 555 Upper limit
8260 10 4 5555
8250 8 4 5555
8240 6 4 5555
8230 11 8 55555555
8220 9 6 555555
8210 4 7 4555555
8200 14 9 555555555
8190 7 7 5555555
8180 6 6 555555
8170 8 7 4555555
8160 8 5 24455
8150 17 6 224455 September 6
8140 10 6 224445
8130 19 8 22444445 Balancing
8120 22 13 1122222444445
8110 30 14 11122222444444
8100 40 16 1111222224444445
8090 49 16 1111122222244444
8080 60 20 11111112222222244444
8070 58 20 11111122222222244444
8060 73 20 11111122222222444444
8050 68 17 11111112222224444
8040 43 16 1111111222222444
8030 51 12 111112222444
8020 53 10 1111112224
8010 32 9 111112224
8000 18 7 1112224
7990 4 4 1122
7980 9 4 1122 Lower Limit
7970 5 2 12
7900 2 1 3
The CISCO Five Day Overlay* display
Natural Gas Nov 2006 September 7
Yesterday: Balance 8270 - 7980
Today EOD: Trend down, breakout at 7970
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
8210 1 1 5
8170 1 1 5
8160 4 3 355
8150 12 4 3355
8140 7 5 33555
8130 16 7 3355555
8120 17 12 223333355555
8110 30 14 22233333555555
8100 38 15 222233333555555
8090 49 16 2222233333355555
8080 60 20 22222223333333355555
8070 58 20 22222233333333355555
8060 73 20 22222233333333555555
8050 68 17 22222223333335555
8040 43 16 2222222333333555
8030 51 12 222223333555
8020 53 10 2222223335
8010 32 9 222223335
8000 18 7 2223335
7990 4 4 2233 September 7
7980 9 4 2233
7970 5 2 23 Breakout down
7900 2 1 4
7890 1 1 1
7880 2 1 1
7870 4 1 1
7860 13 1 1
7850 13 1 1
7840 11 1 1
7830 19 2 11
7820 19 4 1111
7810 15 5 11111
7800 33 4 1111
7790 32 4 1111
7780 24 4 1111
7770 13 4 1111
7760 3 3 111
7750 10 3 111
7740 13 2 11
7730 9 2 11
7720 5 1 1
7710 3 1 1
7700 8 2 11
7690 12 2 11
7680 12 4 1111
7670 22 3 111
7660 41 3 111
7650 27 3 111
7640 18 3 111
7630 19 4 1111
7620 26 4 1111
7610 19 4 1111
7600 19 2 11
7590 10 2 11
7580 9 2 11
7570 2 1 1
7560 2 1 1
* Overlay is a Trademark of CISCO