CISCO Futures
1-303-306-1521 1-800 800 7227 Fax 1-303-306-1572
Internet http//www.cisco-futures.com
Email dljones@cisco-futures.com
Text: Value Based Power Trading, Jones, 1993, Probus
The Short-Course is developed for the more advanced auction market
trader. It
is expected that the reader will understand TPO's and Market Profiles in
general.
Also, more emphasis is placed on day trading than in the standard
Home-Study course.
Short-Course Outline, Day & Swing Trading, Four Months
(Browser Access on the Homepage)
The Short-Course is four months, covering MarketCondition
(the Major Auction) the first two months, then Market Structure (Minor
Auction) the third month. Month 4 is in two parts; trade selection and
trade management. Trade selection relies on the Advice Engine and Advice
Engine research to evaluate the selected trades. Trade management is a
study in the application of market condition. Short timeframe (day)
trading can be successful if the trader can recognize the transition from a
balance condition to a trend condition for entry; and if the trader can
tell when the trend has started to transition back to balance.
The short course combines lessons and paper trading in real time. Data
is provided by the Swing Trader Data Package, the Day Trader Package and
the Advice Engine for research. Weekly conferences (voice or email) are
available with the course leader at no charge (up to 15 minutes per week).
Cost is $500 for the
three months of the course. After the course is completed the Swing Trader Data Package
fee is $75/month, the Day Trader Package fee is $70/month and the Advice Engine
(which combines most of the elements of Day and Swing Trader packages) is either
$200 or $300 monthly, depending on the service level. A special offer is open
for sixty days after completion of the course: Advice Engine, Swing Trader
Package and Day Trader Package combined are $150 per month.
The Short-Course concentrates on trading and learning the reference
points essential to
market understanding. The Home-Study twelve month course, more leisurely
paced for the individual that cannot devote full time to trading,
has lessons on Fluctuation & Volatility (#3), Cost Control (#4), a Workbook
(#5), etc. These lessons are available individually for the regular
monthly fee of $109.
Months 1 and 2. Major Auction
Introduction
Market Condition, the overall picture
Overlay Demand Curve is source of condition
Trending ==> long time-frame traders
Balance ==> short time-frame traders
Trader Control Package provides data
A. Elements of Auction Markets and Exchange Member's Roles
Market Cycle
Four exchange member types
Two market timeframes
Two trader timeframes
B. Market Generated Data: Price and Time
Market Profile (tm)
Liquidity Data Bank (tm)
Overlay Demand Curves (tm)
Trader Control Package
Non-Market Generated Data
Ticks
Open, High, Low, Close, Volume, Open Interest
C. The Bell Shaped Distribution and How it Affects Your Trading
Standard for comparison
Expected and unexpected events
Defines center of value and value area
D. Swing Trading Reference Points; the Primary Six
Six basic reference points of 'Value Based Power Trading'
Bracket: Limits, Octant, Middle, Commercial, Internal Trend
Trend: Run-pause characteristic of trends
E. The Run-Pause Trend Reference Point Illustrated.
T-bonds April 1 - April 7, 1998
F. Additional Reference Points, Free TCP Tables
(Day) Market Review reference points
Reference Point
Daily Range Uses High - Low
Close Relative to previous day
POC Maximum TPO count price (center of day value)
Value Area Day value
Total TPO's An estimate of trading intensity
TPO's Above POC Day demand above POC
TPO's Below POC Day demand below POC
Trade Facilitation A measure of congestion
Shape Factor An estimate of the symmetry of the bell curve
Volatility CV Short term volatility
Total Volume Cleared, total LDB volume
Commercial Volume Cleared, commercial LDB volume
Public Volume Cleared, public LDB volume
Initial Balance High/Low prices of first two TPO pds of the day
I-B Range Range of first two TPO periods of the day
Clo/IB Close relative to IB (ABV, INS, BLO)
Pct/Tot IB percentage of the total days trading range
Value Area Range Range of the value area
Attempted Direction Direction the market is trying to go (U, Null, D)
Value Area Dir. Value area position relative to yesterday
H = Higher, A = Overlapping to Higher, Bl = Inside
L = Lower, Z = Overlapping to Lower
Tables on homepage
Summary Bracket Screen Dollar range of brackets. No limits inc.
Summary, Last 10 days Brackets, last 10 days
Bracket Range Averages Average width, last 250 days
Leading Deliveries Estimated date of delivery
Total Exch. Volume Avg. Exchange (newspaper) volume (inc. spreads)
Total Volume Averages LDB cleared total volume (no spreads)
Floor Mem. Volume LDB cleared floor mem. volume (no spreads)
Commercial Mem. Volume LDB cleared commercial mem. volume (no spreads)
Public & Other Volume LDB cleared public & other volume (no spreads)
Trade Facilitation Fac. TF Factor averages (congestion)
Daily Range Averages Daily Trading Range
Daily Range Dollar Avg. Daily Trading Range averages in dollars
Volatility Rng. Averages Day volatility averages in range factor
Volatility Averages in $ Day volatility in dollars in range factor
Initial Balance Ranges Day Initial Balance range averages
Value Area Averages Day Value Area in dollars
G. Developing a Basic Swing Trading Strategy
Basic Breakout Strategy
Low Risk Day Trades
Breakout
Responsive
Longer Timeframe Swing Trading
H. Trading the Basic Strategy
Basic Strategy
T-bonds, May 7, May 8, 1992
I. Expected/Unexpected Events, Projections, Predictions
Overlay Soybeans, June 4, 1998
TCP ==> evaluation ==> set trade parameters ==> stop on entry ==> continuation
J. Practice Trading, Four Months (Jan - Apr 1996)
Basic Model
Questions for notebook
Swing trades tabulated
Questions/answers/errors
Commercial control of trading
Trades tabulated
Review of six basic reference points
K. Trading as a Business
Method, discipline, rules, leverage, cost control
L. Questions
Open book, 30 questions
Appendix: Legend for Visual Graphic
Month 3. The Minor Auction
Introduction
Market Condition, the overall picture
Overlay Demand Curve is source of condition
A. Elements of Markets and Exchange Member's Roles
Market Cycle
Four exchange member types
Two market timeframes
Two trader timeframes
B. Market Generated Data: Price and Time
Market Profile (tm)
Liquidity Data Bank (tm)
Overlay Demand Curves (tm)
Trader Control Package
Non-Market Generated Data
Ticks
Open, High, Low, Close, Volume, Open Interest
C. The Bell Shaped Distribution and How it Affects Your Trading
Standard for comparison
Expected and unexpected events
Defines center of value and value area
D. Attempted Direction
Yesterday AD formula
Current (partial day) AD
E. Market Profile from Period to Period
Five days through June 4, 1998 for soybeans
F. Market Profile
List of Market Profile reference points
Half-Hour tick bars June 4, 1998
Point of control (POC)
POC direction (H, E, L)
Initial Balance
Initial Balance range, Close location, Pct of total
Initial Balance, Percent of total day range
Initial Balance location of close (A, I, B)
Gaps
VA, range, direction
Shape factor (less is better) " " "
TPO's total
TPO's above POC (less is bullish) (Mkt Prof Theory)
TPO's below POC (less is bearish) " " "
Half-Hour Tick Bars and Volatility
Running Profile (Split day) June 5, 1998
G. Additional Reference Points
Excess
Long Term Bar Chart Soybeans Feb 26, - Jun 4, 1998
Long Term Overlay Demand Curve Mar 9 - Jun 4, 1998
Long Term Overlay Demand Curve Msy 22 - Jun 30, 1998
H. Trade Facilitation Factor
TFF = # TPO's per price level
I. Intra-Day Congestion: Short Covering, Long Liquidation
CISCO Congestion Report
J. Overlay Demand Curve with Market Profile
Overlay Demand Curve T-bond May 19, 1998
Combined Overlay and Market Profile T-bond May 20, 1998
K. Value area location in Overlay (higher or lower)
Overlay with VA T-bond May 19, 1998
Market Profile T-bond May 20, 1998
L. Volume Reference Points
Volume interpreted within market condition
M. Practice Trading
Congestion ==> high TFF ==> narrow range ==> narrow VA ==> low committment
Minor Auction trading, soybeans Overlay Jun 8, 1998
Period by Period trading
N. Trading as a Business
Method, discipline, rules, leverage, cost control
O. Questions
Month 4. Reference Points Developed and Reviewed
Introduction
Part 1. Trade Selection
On-Line Equity Trading
Trade Selection
Advice Engine
Specifics for Analysis
Market Profile
Market Dynamics
Overlay Demand Curve
The One Market Trader
Advice Engine Report, Part 1
Advice Engine Report, Part 2
Data Bases for Research
Entry Point, Price for Entry
Risk on Entry, Research
Drawdown
Search
Potential for Profit, History
Timeframe
Long Term Market Behavior
Recent Market Behavior
Value Diagram
Part 2. Trade Management
A. Bracket Screen
B. Overlay Reference Points
Bracket Limits
Bracket Octants
Bracket Middle
Location of Close
Overlay Consistence (5 + 10)
Shape
Time Pattern of Trade
Gaps
Nodes
C. Commercial Activity
Commercials Re-balance (buffer) the Market
Commercials Go-with Trending Markets
Measuring Commercial Activity
Three Quantitative Measures of Commercial Activity
D. Rotation Index/Quadrant of Close
E. Visual Check of Overlay Demand Curve
F. Volume Reference Point
G. Volatility as a Reference Point
H. Trade Facilitation Factor
I. Value Area & Direction
J. Attempted Direction
K. Point of Control
L. Range
M. Quadrant of Close
N. Visual Graphic
O. Market Review in TCP Text File
P. Congestion
Q. Excess
R. Consolidation/Continuation
S. Expected vs Unexpected Behavior
T. Sources of Other Reference Points
U. Acceptable/Reasonable Risk
Course Fee: $500 incl Day Trader, Swing Trader Package and Advice Engine.