Pause Alert (tm)
By CISCO Futures
March 26, 2009
Copyright 2009
*********************** *Rough Draft ******************************
Pause Alert Example 3: Anticipation, a work-thru of an active day.
A Pause Alert is defined as three continuous TPO's, with the latest being the latest
completed TPO period of the day. That defines the shortest pause we currently
understand. That Pause Alert locates a balance, a market indecision point for the trader.
We are often asked, how can we tell which direction will break out. If a Pause Alert is
really a market indecision point, the market does not know which direction it is
going to take, so how can we?
To see the Pause Alert display:
Pause Alerts are presented on the CISCO Meta-Profile (CMaPS):
On the CISCO Main Page:
Under the flag
Intra-Day Data
Intra-Day Data
CMaPS and Pause Alert
Pause Alerts appear in the 30 Minute Tick Bars columns. If the latest three TPOs share a
region of common price, that region will appear with green coloring.
Instead of guessing the direction a breakout may take, we can let the market tell us.
We can take our definition of Pause Alert (3 completed TPO's) plus some market
understanding of the market's run-pause nature and perform a 'what if' act
on the Pause Alert definition. What if we have a set of two TPO's that go from
price 1 to price 2. Such a case exists for TPO's w and x (06:00 to 06:59) from
79375 to 79125 (CMaPS graphic below). No matter what happens in Z period (07:00 - 07:39)
the maximum a Pause Alert (PA) can be is 79375 to 79125 set by the wx pair. The least
it can be is 0, the case where Z period trades entirely out of the wx price range
79375 - 79125. We will call the potential Pause Alert from the two TPO's a 'Proto Alert'.
A Proto Alert is a necessary condition, a precursor, for a Pause Alert.
For instance;
Case 1. Z does not trade in the 79375 to 79125 at all. Z period cannot have a PA.
Case 2. Z trades totally within the Proto Alert. PA is the Z range.
Case 3. Z trades both within and outside the wx Proto Alert. In that case:
... a. Where Z price was and when, is the significant information.
......a1. Z starts inside wx, either direction may breakout of the Pause Alert.
......a2. Z starts above or below and comes into the Proto region, back to case a1.
How does this information help a trader?
First go back to the definition of Pause Alert as it discovers a balance. For
instance if Z period is within the the wx range, those prices common to the w, x and
Z TPOs will create a Pause Alert.
The Proto balance permits us to trade in anticipation of a PA. We know
those third TPO's (Z in this case) will inevitably cause a Pause Alert if they trade
within the wx range. As soon as Z trades in the wx range we know that
a PA will inevitably exist at the end of Z. Thus, a breakout of the Proto balance
range (wx) in the Z period is a trading opportunity as it breakouts out.
The question can be asked, why bother with Anticiption when you will ultimately
have the completed Pause Alert? The advantage of 'gaming the system' is
better positioning. If a market starts to flow directionally, the best position
is nearest the start of the move.
What can a trader expect to gain from a Pause Alert or a Proto Pause Alert?
Positioning and timing are the main benefits. If the breakout has continuation
(it is not a false breakout), Then one's position is about as good as possible.
If it is a false breakout we know quickly and accept a limited loss.
Coupling a Pause Alert breakout with additional information of market levels
such as longer term balances offers strategy points for adding contracts to
a trade or for profit taking.
Pause Alert: Background
Bookkeeping
In the following discussion of Proto balance breakouts (directional moves)
we will use e.g. the notation 'wx' for the Proto balance and '(Z)' for the
unfinished third TPO in the form wx(Z). wx is completed, Z is partially
completed and is subject to the Cases 1, 2, 3 above.
Variables of the Proto PA and the Unfinished Third TPO (PA)/b>
PD: TPO Periods wx(Z), xZ($), Z$(A), $A(B), AB(C),....(i) = 3rd TPO
e.g. wx = Proto period, wxZ = Pause Alert period, etc.
Pri-RNG: Range of Proto PA: 79375-79200, 79525-79200, 79525-79425,...
Abv: Above, price ticks above Proto-PA: 6, 11,...
TimeH: Time of highest price
Blo: Below, (Blo)price ticks below PA: 6, 11,...
TimeL: Time of lowest price
Analysis UUM 20090319
Proto Pause Alert (2 TPOs) Period by Period Analyses
PD Proto Time Proto Pri-RNG Abv TimeH Blo TimeL
80150 A A wx(Z) 06:00 - 06:59 79375 - 79200 3 07:29 - -
80125 A A xZ($) 06:30 - 07:29 79525 - 79200 11 07:33 - -
80100 AB A B Z$(A) 07:00 - 07:59 79525 - 79425 - - - -
80075 AB A B $A(B) 07:30 - 08:29 79800 - 79650 0 08:31 37 08:59
80050 AB A B AB(C) 08:00 - 08:59 80100 - 79650 - - - -
80025 AB A B BC(D) 08:30 - 09:29 79175 - 78725 - - - -
80000 AB A B CD(E) 09:00 - 09:59 79175 - 78750 - - 16 10:29
79975 AB A B DE(F) 09:30 - 10:29 79175 - 78750 - - - -
79950 AB A B EF(G) 10:00 - 10:59 78525 - 78350 - - 22 10:51
79925 AB A B FG(H) 10:30 - 11:29 78375 - 77950 7 11:48 - -
79900 AB A B GH(I) 11:00 - 11:59 78375 - 78150 7 12:23 6 12:14
79875 AB A B HI(J) 11:30 - 12:29 78550 - 78150 7 12:46 - -
79850 AB A B IJ(K) 12:00 - 12:59 78575 - 78125 14 13:04 - -
79825 AB A B JK(L) 12:30 - 13:29 78775 - 78225 - - 13 13:31
79800 $AB $ A B KL(M) 13:00 - 13:59 78425 - 78225 - - 7 14:05
79775 $AB $ A B LM(N) 13:30 - 14:29 78400 - 77975 2 14:32 8 14:40
79750 $AB $ A B MN(O) 14:00 - 14:59 78400 - 77975 - - 2 15:00
79725 $AB $ A B Anticip + PA: Tables from Example3
79700 $AB $ A B
79675 $AB $ A B
79650 $AB $ A B
79625 $B $ B
79600 $B $ B
79575 $B $ B
79550 x$B x $ B
79525 xZ$B x Z $ B Z 07:00
79500 xZ$B x Z $ B
79475 xZ$B x Z $ B Z 07:29
79450 xZ$B x Z $ B
79425 xZ$B x Z $ B
79400 xZB x Z B Z breakout UP 07:22
79375 wxZBD ==> w x Z B D
79350 wxZBD ! w x Z B D
79325 wxZBD ! w x Z B D
79300 wxZBD ! w x Z B D
79275 wxZBD ! w x Z B D
79250 wxZBD ! w x Z B D
79225 wxZBD ! w x Z B D
79200 wxZBD ! w x Z B D Z 07:11
79175 wxBCDE ! w x B C D E
79150 wxBCDE ! w x B C D E
79125 wxBCDE ==> w x B C D E
79100 wBCDE w B C D E
79075 wBCDE w B C D E
79050 wBCDE w B C D E
79025 wBCDE w B C D E
79000 wBCDE w B C D E
78975 wBCDE w B C D E
78950 wBCDE w B C D E
78925 wBCDEK w B C D E K
78900 wBCDEK w B C D E K
78875 wBCDEK w B C D E K
78850 *wBCDEK w B C D E K
78825 wBCDEK w B C D E K
78800 wBCDEK w B C D E K
78775 BCDEJK B C D E J K
78750 BCDEJK B C D E J K
78725 BCEJK B C E J K
78700 CEJK C E J K
78675 CEJK C E J K
78650 CEJK C E J K
78625 CEJK C E J K
78600 CEJK C E J K
78575 CEIJK C E I J K
78550 CEHIJK C E H I J K
78525 CEFHIJK C E F H I J K
78500 CEFHIJKN C E F H I J K N
78475 CEFHIJKN C E F H I J K N
78450 CEFHIJKN C E F H I J K N
78425 CEFHIJKLN C E F H I J K L N
78400 EFHIJKLMN E F H I J K L M N
78375 EFGHIJKLMN E F G H I J K L M N
78350 EFGHIJKLMN E F G H I J K L M N
78325 FGHIJKLMN F G H I J K L M N
78300 FGHIJKLMN F G H I J K L M N
78275 FGHIJKLMN F G H I J K L M N
78250 FGHIJKLMN F G H I J K L M N
78225 FGHIJKLMN F G H I J K L M N
78200 FGHIJLMN F G H I J L M N
78175 FGHIJLMN F G H I J L M N
78150 FGHIJLMNO F G H I J L M N O
78125 FGIJLMNO F G I J L M N O
78100 FGILMNO F G I L M N O
78075 FGILMNO F G I L M N O
78050 FGILMNO F G I L M N O
78025 FGILMNO F G I L M N O
78000 FGILMNO* F G I L M N O L
77975 FGLMNO F G L M N O
77950 FGLNO F G L N O
77925 FLNO F L N O F
77900 FLNO F L N O
77875 FLN F L N
77850 FLN F L N
77825 FN F N
77800 FN F N
77775 N N
77750 N N
77725 N N
Data courtesy CISCO Futures. CMaPS Meta-Profile, not compressed.
OUTFILE = UUM20090319.BARS