Pause Alert and Anticipated Pause Alert
             Working Paper,  March 30, 2009


Table 1a. 3 TPO Pause Alert for emini SP. March 13, 2009

   Pause Alert (3 TPOs) Periods With 4th TPO Breakouts
           TPO Period by Period Analysis
 
     PD        PA Time         PA Pri-RNG    Abv  TimeH  Blo  TimeL
  1  wxZ($) 06:00 - 07:29     79375 - 79200    -    -      -    -
  2  xZ$(A) 06:30 - 07:59     79525 - 79425    -    -      -    -
  3  Z$A(B) 07:00 - 08:29       -       -      -    -      -    -
  4  $AB(C) 07:30 - 08:59     79800 - 79650    -    -     30  09:02
  5  ABC(D) 08:00 - 09:29       -       -      -    -      -    -
  6  BCD(E) 08:30 - 09:59     79175 - 78750    -    -     15  10;09
  7  CDE(F) 09:00 - 10:29     79150 - 78750    -    -      -    -
  8  DEF(G) 09:30 - 10:59       -       -      -    -      -    -
  9  EFG(H) 10:00 - 11:29     78375 - 78350    7  11:48    8  11:59
 10  FGH(I) 10:30 - 11:59     78375 - 78150    7  12:20    5  12:03
 11  GHI(J) 11:00 - 12:29     78375 - 78150   16  12:41    -    -
 12  HIJ(K) 11:30 - 12:59     78550 - 78175    -    -      -    -
 13  IJK(L) 12:00 - 13:29     78575 - 78225    -    -     14  13:31
 14  JKL(M) 12:30 - 13:59     78425 - 78225    -    -      9  14:21
 15  KLM(N) 13:00 - 14:29     78400 - 78225    4  14:32   14  14:39
 16  LMN(O) 13:30 - 14:59     78400 - 77975    -    -      1  15:14

 Results:
  16 periods of two directions each = 32 opportunites.
  12 opportunities had breakouts
  Opportunities ranged from 1 to 30 price ticks
  Average Opportunity is 10 price ticks


  Example: The line starting EFG(H) shows:
   1. The Pause Alert Time frame for the TPOs EFG is  10:00 - 11:29.
   2. The price range for TPOs EFG is 78375 - 78350
   3. Example: Activity in H period 
        H period opened at 78300, and climbed to 78550 at 11:48 (78550 - 78375 = 175)
        H period then dropped to 78150 at 11:59 (78350 - 78150 = 200)


  Variables of the Pause Alert (3 TPOs) 
  PD:       TPO Periods  wxZ($), xZ$(A), Z$A(B), $AB(C), ABC(D),....(i) = 4th TPO
            e.g. wxZ = Pause Alert period, $ is the trading period,  etc.
  Pri-RNG:  Range  of Pause Alert: 79375-79200, 79525-79425,...
  Abv:      Above,  price ticks above Pause Alert: 6, 11,...
  TimeH:    Time of highest price 
  Blo:      Below, (Blo) price ticks below Pause Alert: 6, 11,...
  TimeL:    Time of lowest price












Table 1b. 2 TPO Anticipation Pause Alert for emini SP. March 13, 2009
            (From PA Example 3)

   Proto Pause Alerts (2 TPOs) Periods With 3rd TPO Breakouts
              TPO Period by Period Analysis
 
     PD     Proto Time       Proto Pri-RNG  Abv  TimeH  Blo  TimeL
  1  wx(Z) 06:00 - 06:59     79375 - 79200    3  07:29    -    -
  2  xZ($) 06:30 - 07:29     79525 - 79200   11  07:33    -    -
  3  Z$(A) 07:00 - 07:59     79525 - 79425    -    -      -    -
  4  $A(B) 07:30 - 08:29     79800 - 79650    0  08:31   37  08:59
  5  AB(C) 08:00 - 08:59     80100 - 79650    -    -      -    -
  6  BC(D) 08:30 - 09:29     79175 - 78725    -    -      -    -
  7  CD(E) 09:00 - 09:59     79175 - 78750    -    -     16  10:29
  8  DE(F) 09:30 - 10:29     79175 - 78750    -    -      -    -
  9  EF(G) 10:00 - 10:59     78525 - 78325    -    -     22  10:51
 10  FG(H) 10:30 - 11:29     78375 - 77950    7  11:48    -    -
 11  GH(I) 11:00 - 11:59     78375 - 78150    7  12:23    5  12:14
 12  HI(J) 11:30 - 12:29     78550 - 78150    7  12:46    0  12:36   
 13  IJ(K) 12:00 - 12:59     78575 - 78125    14 13:04    -    -
 14  JK(L) 12:30 - 13:29     78775 - 78225    -    -     13  13:31
 15  KL(M) 13:00 - 13:59     78425 - 78225    -    -      7  14:05
 16  LM(N) 13:30 - 14:29     78400 - 77975    2  14:32    8  14:40
 17  MN(O) 14:00 - 14:59     78400 - 77975    -    -      2  15:00

 Results:
  17 periods of two directions each = 34 opportunites.
  17 opportunities had breakouts
  Opportunities ranged from 0 to 37 price ticks
  Average Opportunity is 9 price ticks


  Example: The line starting wx(Z) shows:
   1. The Proto Time frame for the TPOs w and x is 06:00 - 06:59.
   2. The price range for TPOs wx is 79375 - 79200.
   3. As shown in Example 3: Pause Alert: Example3
        Z period opened at 79525, which turned out to be the high.
        Z period dropped to 79200 at 07:11, well within the wx range.
        Z period broke out (up) of the wx Proto Alert at 07:22 (79400).
        Z period reached a high 79475 at 07:29 (end of Z) for a 3 point move.


  Variables of the Proto PA (2 TPOs) and the Unfinished Third TPO (PA)
  PD:       TPO Periods  wx(Z), xZ($), Z$(A), $A(B), AB(C),....(i) = 3rd TPO
            e.g. wx = Proto period, wxZ = Pause Alert period, etc.
  Pri-RNG:  Range  of Proto PA: 79375-79200, 79525-79200, 79525-79425,...
  Abv:      Above,  price ticks above Proto-PA: 6, 11,...
  TimeH:    Time of highest price 
  Blo:      Below, (Blo) price ticks below Proto-PA: 6, 11,...
  TimeL:    Time of lowest price



pause_alert_table_ex3.html