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Market Profile, Meta-Profile and Market Condition
Donald L. Jones
September 3, 2007
Copyright CISCO Futures 2007
Market Profile, Meta-Profile and Market Condition
The Market Profile concept was introduced in a product announcement by the CBOT in 1985 (CBOT Market Profile). Accompanying the announcement was a users manual also titled CBOT Market Profile (Ref 1). Profile analysis comes from reading a price-volume chart called a market profile (Fig 1). A profile chart for an average trading day formed a quasi-bell shaped curve of price on the vertical and trading volume on the horizontal. The central 70 percent of the day's volume was defined as the 'value area' to conform with the first standard deviation of a gaussian (normal) distribution. Other chart elements were defined such as the initial balance (price range of the first hour of trading), range extension (trading beyond the initial balance), tails (the high and low extreme price area of the profile), several day types, value area and more. Study of a profile begins with identifying the day type and then reading the profile to identify the elements or reference points. From this one gets an understanding of that day including who (long timeframe, short timeframe) is buying and who is selling. The manual estimated that it would take six to twelve months to master the profiles and to trade effectively. The Market Profile, as advertised, is pattern recognition within in a holistic shell.
A caveat is in order: In 1985 when the Market Profile was introduced trading was all Pits and the trade (members) had more money in the market than the public. Markets are changing. The Pits are closed or closing, public money dominates and electronic markets are the new order. The ability of a member to rub shoulders with the market makers is gone. Consequently, much of the Market Profile product viability has disappeared.
Profile Report 07 11 07
and Segmented Auction
Future: -- DJIA (CBOT) Day SEP 07
Price TPOs Segmented Auction
136800 O O
136750 O O
136700 JO J O
136650 JO J O
136600 JO J O
136550 GJN G |J | | N | <== VAU
136500 GJKN G |J |K | | |N |
136450 EGHJKLN E G H | |J |K |L | |N |
136400 EFGHIJKLMN E F G H |I >J >K >L >M >N >
136350 EFGHIKLMN E F G H >I | |K |L |M |N |
136300 EGHKLM E G |H | | |K |L |M | |
136250 CDEGKLM C D E |G | | | |K |L |M | |
136200 CDELM C D E | | | | | | |L |M | |
136150 CDLM C D | | | | | | | |L |M | |
136100 CDLM C D | | | | | | | |L |M | |
136050 CDLM C |D | | | | | | | |L |M | | <== VAL
136000 CD C |D | | | | | | | |
135950 zBCD z B |C |D | | | | | | |
135900 zBC z B |C | | | | | | |
135850 yzBC y >z | |B |C | | | | |
135800 yzBC >y |z | |B |C | | | | |
135750 yzABC y |z |A |B |C | | | | |
135700 ABC A |B |C | | | | |
135650 AB A B | | | | |
135600 B B
TPO Analysis
Center 136400
Value Area from TPOS
Upper 136570
Lower 136050
Figure 1. Meta-Profile Data for DJ Index, Jul 11, 2007
Compression factor 5.
This day has two distributions, one centered at 135750, where the TPOs Z$ABC cver
the times 7:20 - 7:30 (Z), 7:30 - 8 ($), 8 - 8:30 (A), 8:30 - 9 (B) and 9 - 9:30 (C).
The second distribution is centered at 136400 with times 9 - 9:30 (C) through 15 - 15:15 (O).
The extended, non compressed profile is Fig 1a. in the Appendix
Problems with Market Profile and Their Resolution
A CISCO five day Meta-Profile display
SOYBEANS (CBOT) DAY JUL 06 First date: 6 7 6 Last date: 6 13 6
7 8 9 12 13
6050 IJ
6044 IJ
6040 IJ
6034 DIJ
6030 DGHIJK I
6024 DGHIJK I
6020 DEFGHIK HI
6014 DEFGHIK GHI
6010 J DEFGHK EGHI
6004 J DEFGK EFGHI
6000 J DEFGK EFGHI
5994 J DEFGK EFGI
5990 JK DEFK DEFIJ
5984 JK DEF DEFIJ
5980 IJK D DEFJ
5974 IJK D DEFJK
5970 DHIJK D DJK
5964 DHIJK D DJK
5960 DHK D DJK
5954 DGHK D DJK
5950 DGH D DJK
5944 DGH DK
5940 DGH D
5934 DEG D
5930 DEFG D
5924 DEFG D D
5920 DEF DJK D
5914 DEF DEJK D
5910 E DEJK D
5904 E DEFHJK D
5900 E EFGHJK DEG
5894 EFGHIJK DEFG
5890 EFGHIJK DEFGHI
5884 EFGIJK DEFGHI
5880 EIK DEFGHI
5874 EK DEFGHI
5870 EK DEFHIJK
5864 E DEFHIJK
5860 E DFHIJK
5854 FHIJK
5850 FIJK
5844 FIJ
5840 FIJ
5834 IJ
FIVE DAY OVERLAY
** ALL TDG PERIODS INCLUDED FOR VOLUME CONSISTENCY **
VOL DETAIL VOL HITS 1=NEAR, 2=NEXT BK,...
6050 10 2 22
6044 26 2 22
6040 59 2 22
6034 73 3 222
6030 100 7 1222222
6024 129 7 1222222
6020 153 9 112222222
6014 215 10 1112222222
6010 152 11 11112222225
6004 168 11 11111222225
6000 186 11 11111222225
5994 149 10 1111222225
5990 166 11 11111222255
5984 200 10 1111122255 <== VAU
5980 121 8 11112555
5974 171 9 111112555
5970 214 9 111255555
5964 153 9 111255555
5960 133 7 1112555
5954 84 8 11125555
5950 88 7 1112555
5944 58 5 11555
5940 35 4 1555
5934 55 4 4555
5930 87 5 45555
5924 135 6 345555
5920 147 7 3444555
5914 100 8 34444555
5910 95 6 344445
5904 75 8 34444445
5900 119 10 3334444445
5894 194 11 33334444444
5890 197 13 3333334444444 <== POC
5884 159 12 333333444444
5880 150 9 333333444
5874 110 8 33333344
5870 89 9 333333344
5864 112 8 33333334
5860 88 7 3333334
5854 52 5 33333
5850 35 4 3333 <== VAL
5844 53 3 333
5840 21 3 333
5834 2 2 33
Figure 2. Five days of profiles for soybeans, with the accompanying five day Overlay.
The profiles start high, fall for three days, gap up and have three up days.
Note that the profiles have quasi-bell shapes; the five day Overlay does not.
Overlays are expected to have flatter tops.
Compression factor = 2.
For more information: Overlay Demand Curve Background
Point of Control (POC) 5890
Value Area
Upper Limit (VAU) 5990
Lower Limit (VAL) 5850
But this value is wrong. Imagine five profiles as above, but more regular, with the POC's
all equal, but at different prices for each day. Adding the five together would be like
having a long tent with five equal height tent-poles. The Overlay would rise to the first
POC, stay at a relatively equal height until the last POC and then drop back to zero. The
result would a quasi-step function. Ideally, the Overlays would look like:
Price TPOs
P01 x
P02 x
P03 x
P04 POC 1 x
P05 x
P06 x
P07 x
P08 POC 2 x
P09 x
P10 x
P11 x
P12 x
P13 x
P14 POC 3 x
P15 x
P16 x
P17 x
P18 x
P19 POC 4 x
P20 x
P21 x
P22 x
This Overlay starts somewhere between prices 1 and 4 and ends somewhere between prices 19 and 22.
So where is 'somewhere'? Our definition of a 5 day balance starts with three TPOs. In figure 2
the balance region lies between 6034 and 5840.
5 Day 10 Day 20 Day O H L C
0705 X X X 136750 136800 136020 136500
0706 X x X 136668 137250 136270 137080
0709 X X X 137620 137600 137050 137400
0710 - X X 137030 137150 135730 135850
0711 X X X 135800 136800 135550 136770
0712 137150 139530 137100 139200
no balance July 12 - 17
0718 - X X 140250 140400 139000 140030
0719 X X X 140530 140900 140270 140610
0720 X X X 140050 140320 138750 139380
0723 X X X 139730 140450 139650 140110
0724 - X X 139730 139750 137700 138130
0725 x x X 138730 138850 137400 138410
0726 137500 137850 133950 135340
no balance July 26 - 31
0801 X - - 131950 134350 131750 134040
0802 X x - 134340 135500 133950 135270
0803 135200 135400 132100 132660
Table 1. DJ Sep 2007. Balances for nominal 5, 10 and 20 days.
Applying the data of Tables 1 and 1a.
Ulim Llim Range
0711 05 DJ 9 7 L 137550 136050 1500
0711 10 DJ 9 7 S 137550 133650 3900
0711 20 DJ 9 7 S 137900 133850 4050
The upper limits are bunched toward the top. This indicates a fairly recent move
on the upside. As price moved up all time frames are extended in that direction.
Pit Trading 30 Year bonds
Date SYM CTI1% CTI2% CTI3% CTI4% Total Volume
2003 11,28 U2 49.9 3.0 4.4 42.7 21,512
2006 11,29 U2 52.1 3.8 0.3 43.8 18,852
2007 8,24 U2 55.8 4.3 1.2 38.7 5,544
Electronic Trading 30 Year bonds
Date SYM CTI1% CTI2% CTI3% CTI4% Total Volume
2003 11,28 U6 27.2 22.7 3.4 46.8 157,776
2006 11,29 U6 20.9 52.3 0.6 25.9 667,398
2007 8,24 U6 29.3 40.5 0.4 29.6 631,936
Legend. U2 = day 30 Yr Bonds, U6 = electronic 30 Yr Bonds
CTI1 = Locals
CTI2 = Commercials
CTI3 = Members trading for menbers
CTI4 = Members trading for the public
Inferences:
1. Pit is small and declining
2. Locals are about half as significant (%) in electronic market
3. Commercials much more important in electronic marketS
4. Public somewhat lower percentage in electronic markets
With the move to electronic trading there are substantial changes from the
pit trading days that market profile came from. No longer does one trader see
all others and what they are doing. The mix has changed. There is more public
money than trade money. Information is constant, change is speeded up.
There are markets that trade many more hours and still pits with their day hours.
There are many more balls for the holistic profile trader to keep in the air.
Appendix
Overlay Table DJ Sep 2007 July 7 - August 2
Five Day Overlays
Dte Ov F Dl Yr ULIM LLIM CLO $RNG U-OCT MID L-OCT Tst
0705 05 DJ 9 7 S 136750 134750 136500 2000 136500 135750 135000 T
0706 05 DJ 9 7 S 137150 134750 137080 2400 136850 135950 135050 T
0709 05 DJ 9 7 S 137550 135750 137400 1800 137325 136650 135975
0711 05 DJ 9 7 L 137550 136050 136770 1500 137363 136800 136237 T
0719 05 DJ 9 7 S 140900 139200 140610 1700 140688 140050 139412
0720 05 DJ 9 7 L 140900 139000 139380 1900 140663 139950 139237 T
0723 05 DJ 9 7 S 140900 139000 140110 1900 140663 139950 139237
0725 05 DJ 9 7 L 140800 137600 138410 3200 140400 139200 138000 T
0801 05 DJ 9 7 S 135800 131900 134040 3900 135313 133850 132387
0802 05 DJ 9 7 S 135500 131900 135270 3600 135050 133700 132350
Ten Day Overlays
Dte Ov F Dl Yr ULIM LLIM CLO $RNG U-OCT MID L-OCT Tst
0705 10 DJ 9 7 S 136750 133650 136500 3100 136363 135200 134037 T
0706 10 DJ 9 7 S 137150 133650 137080 3500 136713 135400 134087 T
0709 10 DJ 9 7 S 137550 133650 137400 3900 137063 135600 134137
0710 10 DJ 9 7 S 137550 133650 135850 3900 137063 135600 134137
0711 10 DJ 9 7 S 137550 133650 136770 3900 137063 135600 134137
0719 10 DJ 9 7 S 140900 139200 140610 1700 140688 140050 139412 * 6
0720 10 DJ 9 7 L 140900 138900 139380 2000 140650 139900 139150 T* 7
0723 10 DJ 9 7 S 140900 138900 140110 2000 140650 139900 139150 * 8
0724 10 DJ 9 7 L 140900 137700 138130 3200 140500 139300 138100 * 9
0725 10 DJ 9 7 L 140900 137500 138410 3400 140475 139200 137925 T
0802 10 DJ 9 7 S 135800 131900 135270 3900 135313 133850 132387 * 6
Twenty Day Overlays
Dte Ov F Dl Yr ULIM LLIM CLO $RNG U-OCT MID L-OCT Tst
0705 20 DJ 9 7 S 137900 133700 136500 4200 137375 135800 134225
0706 20 DJ 9 7 S 137900 133750 137080 4150 137382 135825 134268
0709 20 DJ 9 7 S 137900 133850 137400 4050 137394 135875 134356
0710 20 DJ 9 7 L 137900 133850 135850 4050 137394 135875 134356
0711 20 DJ 9 7 S 137900 133850 136770 4050 137394 135875 134356
0730 20 DJ 9 7 L 140800 132900 134110 7900 139813 136850 133887 T
Table 1a. DJ Sep 2007 Delivery
Balances for 5, 10 and 20 day nominal periods: July 5 - August 2
On the right margin the notation T* 7 indicates the market close is near
a limit (either upper or lower) and the * 7 means that this nominal 10 day
balance is in reality only 7 days of balance.
*Data from CISCO Daily Bracket Screen
Trade Date 20070711
Number of Prices: 86
1 136800 1 O O
2 136770 1 O O
3 136750 1 O O
4 136730 2 JO J O
5 136720 2 JO J O
6 136700 2 JO J O
7 136680 2 JO J O
8 136650 2 JO J O
9 136630 2 JO J O
10 136620 2 JO J O
11 136600 2 JO J O
12 136590 3 JNO J NO
13 136580 2 JN J N
14 136570 2 JN J N
15 136550 3 GJN G J N
16 136530 3 GJN G J N
17 136520 3 GJN G J N
18 136510 3 GJN G J N
19 136500 4 GJKN G JK N
20 136490 5 EGJKN E G JK N
21 136480 5 EGJKN E G JK N
22 136470 6 EGJKLN E G JKL N
23 136460 6 EGJKLN E G JKL N
24 136450 7 EGHJKLN E GH JKL N
25 136430 8 EGHIJKLN E GHIJKL N
26 136420 9 EFGHIJKLN EFGHIJKL N
27 136410 9 EFGHIJKLN EFGHIJKL N
28 136400 10 EFGHIJKLMN EFGHIJKLMN
29 136390 9 EFGHIKLMN EFGHI KLMN
30 136380 9 EFGHIKLMN EFGHI KLMN
31 136370 9 EFGHIKLMN EFGHI KLMN
32 136360 9 EFGHIKLMN EFGHI KLMN
33 136350 9 EFGHIKLMN EFGHI KLMN
34 136330 7 EFGHKLM EFGH KLM
35 136320 6 EGHKLM E GH KLM
36 136300 6 EGHKLM E GH KLM
37 136290 6 EGHKLM E GH KLM
38 136280 6 EGHKLM E GH KLM
39 136270 7 CEGHKLM C E GH KLM
40 136260 7 CEGHKLM C E GH KLM
41 136250 7 CDEGKLM CDE G KLM
42 136240 5 CDELM CDE LM
43 136230 5 CDELM CDE LM
44 136220 5 CDELM CDE LM
45 136200 5 CDELM CDE LM
46 136190 4 CDLM CD LM
47 136180 4 CDLM CD LM
48 136170 4 CDLM CD LM
49 136160 4 CDLM CD LM
50 136150 4 CDLM CD LM
51 136140 4 CDLM CD LM
52 136130 4 CDLM CD LM
53 136110 4 CDLM CD LM
54 136100 4 CDLM CD LM
55 136080 4 CDLM CD LM
56 136070 4 CDLM CD LM
57 136060 4 CDLM CD LM
58 136050 4 CDLM CD LM
59 136040 2 CD CD
60 136030 2 CD CD
61 136020 2 CD CD
62 136000 2 CD CD
63 135990 2 CD CD
64 135950 4 $BCD $ BCD
65 135930 3 $BC $ BC
66 135920 3 $BC $ BC
67 135900 3 $BC $ BC
68 135890 3 $BC $ BC
69 135880 3 $BC $ BC
70 135860 3 $BC $ BC
71 135850 4 Z$BC Z$ BC
72 135830 4 Z$BC Z$ BC
73 135820 4 Z$BC Z$ BC
74 135800 4 Z$BC Z$ BC
75 135780 5 Z$ABC Z$ABC
76 135770 5 Z$ABC Z$ABC
77 135760 5 Z$ABC Z$ABC
78 135750 5 Z$ABC Z$ABC
79 135730 3 ABC ABC
80 135720 3 ABC ABC
81 135700 3 ABC ABC
82 135680 2 AB AB
83 135660 2 AB AB
84 135650 2 AB AB
85 135620 1 B B
86 135600 1 B B
Figure 1a. Meta-profile for DJ Sep 2007 July 11, 2007