Home Study Futures Course: Quarter 2.

Month_4_5_6

 

In the first quarter you learned the Trader Control database, how to manipulate it and how to use it to develop your strategy. You learned about reference points and should be very familiar with the five primary ones (three from the Overlay Demand Curve, one for the commercials and the internal trend). You should have become passingly familiar with other reference points, principally those listed in the day market review.

This Quarter contains the lessons for Months 4 and 6 on protecting your money and exiting from trades. Month 5 is the WORKBOOK.

Review of Quarter 1
    Questions 1 (Answers from CISCO)
        Test questions.
        More questions.
        Review of quarter 1, with questions.

Index, Quarter 2
Month 4: Street smarts, protecting your money.
    Introduction
    A. Discipline
        Outside Advice, A No-No
        Following the News, A No-No
        Do Your Homework
        Controlling Greed, Controlling Fear
    B. The Trading Arena: Exchange Environment, Regulatory Agencies
        The Exchange: A Private Organization
        The Exchange: Path of a Trade
        The Exchange: Filling Your Order
        The Exchange: Orders
        The Exchange: The Initial Balance
        Regulatory Agencies
                The National Futures Association
        Brokerage Firms
    C. Leverage
        Using Leverage Wisely
        The Five Percent Per Trade Rule
        Leverage and Risk Control
    D. Leverage: The Entire Account
    E. Scale-up and Scale-down Trading
    F. Cost Control
        Direct Costs
        Indirect Costs
    G. Slip: Using Tick-by-Tick data

Month 5: Workbook
        Market Phases on blue 2 page flyer

Month 6: Test Phase of the Market.
    Introduction
    A. Start analysis of Testing by T-bonds for July 10, 1996: 4 Day Bracket
    B. July 11: Breakout Up, New Bracket
    C. July 12: Breakout Up
    D. July 15: Exit Long, Bracket
    E. July 16: Breakout Up (false)
    F. July 17: Bracket
    G. July 18: Breakout Up

    Index for Frequently Asked Questions FAQ's
        FAQA General
        FAQB Futures Data, Technical Analysis
        FAQC Market generated data: Market Profile, Liquidity Data
        FAQD Market generated data: Overlay Demand Curves
        FAQE Reference points
        FAQF Home Study Course
        FAQG Trader Control Package
        FAQH TCP Visual Volume Graphics
        FAQI Data retrieval, viewing, printing
 
Review of Quarter 1


  Trader Control data for T-bonds: Questions & Answers

    Day 1:   
     
   Screen for U2, 9 
   DY     FUTURE   D   UPPER   LOWER   CLOSE    $RNG 
   05 U2   9  96   L   11110   11016   11020     812Y 
   10 U2   9  96   L   11208   11016   11020    1750Y 
   15 U2   9  96   L   11206   11016   11020    1687Y 
     
   Overlay(tm) and Extension for  5 days. 
   SEP 96 T-BOND (CBOT) DAY 
   08 15 96 TO 08 21 96 
    PRICE DYS  L/F ROT PROFILE *  TPOS TPO VOL OVERLAY * 
    11110  1         6               4 XXXX 
    11109  2         67              7 XXXXXXX 
    11108  2         67              7 XXXXXXX 
    11107  2         67             10 XXXXXXXXXX 
    11106  2         67             11 XXXXXXXXXXX 
    11105  3         678            12 XXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11104  3         678            11 XXXXXXXXXXX 
    11103  3         678            12 XXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11102  3         678            11 XXXXXXXXXXX 
    11101  3         678            15 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11100  4   5     5678           22 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11031  4   5     5678           27 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11030  4   5     5678           27 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11029  3   5     578            22 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11028  3   5     578            20 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11027  3   5     578            17 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11026  3   5     578            12 XXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11025  4   59    5789           13 XXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11024  4   59    5789           12 XXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11023  3   59    589            16 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11022  2   59    59             18 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11021  2   59    59             17 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11020  2   59    59             19 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX  close 
    11019  2   59    59             20 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11018  2   59    59             17 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11017  2   59    59              7 XXXXXXX 
    11016  1    9    9               6 XXXXXX 
    11015  1    9    9               2 XX 
    11014  1    9    9               1 X 
     
    OVERLAY ANALYSIS:  Entire Overlay 
     Close  11020   Ten day:  Average range   23   Maximum range  120 
     Number prices in overlay  29    Total TPOs  395 
     Trade facilitation factor (TPOs/prices/days) =  2.72 
     TPO Control Price (HPTP)  11030:  TPOs Above and Below Control  149  218 
     
    DISTRIBUTION INFO:  Minimum Dist = 4 Prices, 3 TPOs.  Latest day symb = 9 
     There is/are 1 Distribution(s) in this Overlay 
     DIST#  HIGH MXTPO   LOW  PEAKTPOs 
         1 11110 11030 11016    27 
     Close in Distribution #  1.  Limits = 11110 11016 
        Quadrant 1-2 Division Pt:   11104. 
        Quadrant 3-4 Division Pt:   11022. 
        Each quadrant is approx.        6. 
     
   ROTATION INDEX AND QUADRANT OF CLOSE 
                             8 DY CLO  4 DY CLO DAY 
   TRD DATE      HI      LO    RI  QD    RI  QD  ID 
   08 15 96   11100   11017  0.67   4  0.50   4   5 
   08 16 96   11110   11030  0.58   3  0.50   3   6 
   08 19 96   11109   11024  0.58   4  0.67   2   7 
   08 20 96   11105   11023  0.50   4  0.67   3   8 
   08 21 96   11025   11014  0.50   4  0.50   4   9 
     
   Extended Overlay(tm) Analysis for: 
    5 U2  9 96 Preferred Dir = L 
      Location    Price    $Pot   $Risk 
   Upper Limit    11110 
   Octant         11107     312     104 
   Sextant        11106     281     140 
   Quadrant       11104     218     218 
   Mid Dist       11029 
   Quadrant       11022     218     218 
   Sextant        11020     281     140 
   Octant         11019     312     104 
   Lower Limit    11016 
     
    The CISCO Commercial Traders Volume Analysis 
     
                                  VOL/PRICE TIC         VALUE AREA      QUADRANT 
       DATE  HIGH   LOW CLOSE CTI V-AB V-VA V-BL %TOT %ABV  %VA %BLO   %QD1 %QD4 
   08 21 96 11025 11014 11019   2   21  100   31  7.1  0.9  5.2  1.0    4.5 13.8 
   08 20 96 11105 11023 11027   2   33  100   13  7.0  1.3  5.4  0.3   11.5  4.4 
   08 19 96 11109 11024 11028   2   11  100    9  8.0  1.1  6.5  0.3    1.6 25.2 
   08 16 96 11110 11030 11109   2   40  100   40  9.2  0.4  6.8  2.0   19.5 12.6 
   08 15 96 11101 11017 11022   2   36  100   24  9.0  1.8  6.6  0.6    9.0 29.7 
   08 14 96 11106 11022 11031   2   43  100   30  7.5  1.4  5.2  0.8   16.0 17.0 
   08 13 96 11216 11028 11030   2    6  100   26  8.3  0.7  6.1  1.4    5.9 18.7 
   08 12 96 11209 11125 11203   2   31  100   10  7.0  1.6  5.2  0.2   15.3 23.9 
   08 09 96 11208 11117 11203   2   22  100   14 10.3  0.9  8.3  1.0   17.5  4.3 
   08 08 96 11124 11104 11107   2   33  100   10 11.6  3.1  8.3  0.2    2.5 40.2 
     
                    AVERAGE     2   27  100   20  8.5  1.3  6.4  0.8   10.3 19.0 
     
   08 16 Lower Comml Action: 11030             VALUE AREA 
   08 13 Lower Comml Action: 11028             VALUE AREA 
   08 08 Upper Comml Action: 11124             VALUE AREA 
         Lower Comml Action: 11104                         QUADRANT 

   
     
  Questions:  Day 1 
    1A. There are three Overlays available today for the T-bonds, 5, 10 & 15 
        days.  From this evidence alone, why do you suppose there is no 20 
        day Overlay listed?  ____________________________________________ 

    2A. Although there are three different time frames (5, 10 & 15 days), we 
        have selected the 5 day to list above.  Why did we use the 5 day  
        instead of one of the others?  ____________________________________ 

   3A. Name the 3 main reference points associated with the 5 day Overlay. 
           ______________ 
           ______________ 
           ______________ 
           ______________ 

   4A. There are 2 more primary reference points potentially available in  
       the data above.  Name them. 
           ______________________________________________ 
           ______________________________________________ 

  
  Instructions:  Using the primary reference points, answer the following: 

    1B. Where would an upside breakout begin?  __________ 
              Locate the stop. ______ .   
              What is the dollar value of the stop?  ___________ 
        What effect would today's commercial activity have on your answer? 
           ____________________________________________________________ 

  
    2B. If there was no upside breakout, where would you(responsive) short? ________ 
        If you (responsive)shorted the market where is your stop? _______ 
        If you (responsive)shorted the market where is your target? _______ 

    3B. Where is price when the probability of either up or down is equal? _____ 
    

              Locate the stop. ______ 
              What is the dollar value of the stop?  ___________ 
          What effect would the commercial activity have on your answer? 
           ____________________________________________________________ 

   
    5B. If there was no downside breakout, where would you go (responsive) long? ________ 
        If you (responsive) bought the market where is your stop? _______ 
        If you (responsive) bought the market where is your target? _______ 

  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 


    Day 2
     
   Screen for U2, 9 
   DY     FUTURE   D   UPPER   LOWER   CLOSE    $RNG 
   05 U2   9  96   L   11110   11010   11018    1000Y 
   10 U2   9  96   L   11110   11012   11018     937Y 
   15 U2   9  96   L   11206   11012   11018    1812Y 
   20 U2   9  96   L   11206   11012   11018    1812Y 
     
   Overlay(tm) and Extension for  5 days. 
   SEP 96 T-BOND (CBOT) DAY 
   08 16 96 TO 08 22 96 
    PRICE DYS  L/F ROT PROFILE *  TPOS TPO VOL OVERLAY * 
    11110  1   5     5               4 XXXX 
    11109  2   5     56              7 XXXXXXX 
    11108  2   5     56              7 XXXXXXX 
    11107  2   5     56             10 XXXXXXXXXX 
    11106  2   5     56             11 XXXXXXXXXXX 
    11105  3   5     567            12 XXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11104  3   5     567            11 XXXXXXXXXXX 
    11103  3   5     567            12 XXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11102  3   5     567            11 XXXXXXXXXXX 
    11101  3   5     567            15 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11100  3   5     567            20 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11031  3   5     567            25 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11030  3   5     567            25 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11029  2         67             19 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11028  3    9    679            17 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11027  3    9    679            12 XXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11026  3    9    679             6 XXXXXX 
    11025  4    9    6789            6 XXXXXX 
    11024  4    9    6789            7 XXXXXXX 
    11023  3    9    789             8 XXXXXXXX 
    11022  2    9    89              9 XXXXXXXXX 
    11021  2    9    89             11 XXXXXXXXXXX 
    11020  2    9    89             13 XXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11019  2    9    89             14 XXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11018  2    9    89             17 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX  close 
    11017  2    9    89             12 XXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11016  2    9    89             12 XXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11015  2    9    89              9 XXXXXXXXX 
    11014  2    9    89              9 XXXXXXXXX 
    11013  1    9    9               9 XXXXXXXXX 
    11012  1    9    9               7 XXXXXXX 
    11011  1    9    9               6 XXXXXX 
    11010  1    9    9               3 XXX 
    11009  1    9    9               3 XXX 
     
    OVERLAY ANALYSIS:  Entire Overlay 
     Close  11018   Ten day:  Average range   23   Maximum range  120 
     Number prices in overlay  34    Total TPOs  379 
     Trade facilitation factor (TPOs/prices/days) =  2.23 
     TPO Control Price (HPTP)  11030:  TPOs Above and Below Control  145  209 
     
    DISTRIBUTION INFO:  Minimum Dist = 4 Prices, 3 TPOs.  Latest day symb = 9 
     There is/are 1 Distribution(s) in this Overlay 
     DIST#  HIGH MXTPO   LOW  PEAKTPOs 
         1 11110 11030 11010    25 
     Close in Distribution #  1.  Limits = 11110 11010 
        Quadrant 1-2 Division Pt:   11102. 
        Quadrant 3-4 Division Pt:   11018. 
        Each quadrant is approx.        8. 
     
   ROTATION INDEX AND QUADRANT OF CLOSE 
                             8 DY CLO  4 DY CLO DAY 
   TRD DATE      HI      LO    RI  QD    RI  QD  ID 
   08 16 96   11110   11030  0.58   3  0.50   3   5 
   08 19 96   11109   11024  0.58   4  0.67   2   6 
   08 20 96   11105   11023  0.50   4  0.67   3   7 
   08 21 96   11025   11014  0.50   4  0.50   4   8 
   08 22 96   11028   11009  0.50   4  0.67   3   9 
     
   Extended Overlay(tm) Analysis for: 
    5 U2  9 96 Preferred Dir = L 
      Location    Price    $Pot   $Risk 
   Upper Limit    11110 
   Octant         11106     375     125 
   Sextant        11105     343     171 
   Quadrant       11102     250     250 
   Mid Dist       11026 
   Quadrant       11018     250     250 
   Sextant        11015     343     171 
   Octant         11014     375     125 
   Lower Limit    11010 
     
    The CISCO Commercial Traders Volume Analysis 
     
                                  VOL/PRICE TIC         VALUE AREA      QUADRANT 
       DATE  HIGH   LOW CLOSE CTI V-AB V-VA V-BL %TOT %ABV  %VA %BLO   %QD1 %QD4 
   08 22 96 11028 11009 11017   2   48  100    0  7.5  2.0  5.5  0.0   16.4 25.9 
   08 21 96 11025 11014 11019   2   21  100   31  7.1  0.9  5.2  1.0    4.5 13.8 
   08 20 96 11105 11023 11027   2   33  100   13  7.0  1.3  5.4  0.3   11.5  4.4 
   08 19 96 11109 11024 11028   2   11  100    9  8.0  1.1  6.5  0.3    1.6 25.2 
   08 16 96 11110 11030 11109   2   40  100   40  9.2  0.4  6.8  2.0   19.5 12.6 
   08 15 96 11101 11017 11022   2   36  100   24  9.0  1.8  6.6  0.6    9.0 29.7 
   08 14 96 11106 11022 11031   2   43  100   30  7.5  1.4  5.2  0.8   16.0 17.0 
   08 13 96 11216 11028 11030   2    6  100   26  8.3  0.7  6.1  1.4    5.9 18.7 
   08 12 96 11209 11125 11203   2   31  100   10  7.0  1.6  5.2  0.2   15.3 23.9 
   08 09 96 11208 11117 11203   2   22  100   14 10.3  0.9  8.3  1.0   17.5  4.3 
     
                    AVERAGE     2   29  100   19  8.1  1.2  6.1  0.8   11.7 17.5 
     
   08 22 Upper Comml Action: 11028             VALUE AREA 
   08 16 Lower Comml Action: 11030             VALUE AREA 
   08 13 Lower Comml Action: 11028             VALUE AREA 
     

  
     
  Questions:  Day 2 
    1A. There are four Overlays available today for the T-bonds. 
        Which one would we generally use? 
          ______________________________________________ 

   
    2A. What is a 'false breakout'?  Do you see one in the Day 2 data? 
        Explain  
           ______________________________________________ 

   
    3A. Name the 3 main reference points associated with the 5 day Overlay. 
           ______________ 
           ______________ 
           ______________ 
           ______________ 

    4A. There are 2 more primary reference points potentially available in  
       the data above.  Name them.  Any reservations on either? 
           ______________________________________________ 
           ______________________________________________ 

   
  Instructions:  Using the primary reference points, answer the following: 

    1B. Where would an upside breakout begin?  __________ 
              Locate the stop. ______ .   
              What is the dollar value of the stop?  ___________ 
        What effect would today's commercial activity have on your answer? 
           ____________________________________________________________ 

   
    2B. If there was no upside breakout, where would you short? ________ 
        If you (responsive)shorted the market where is your stop? _______ 
        If you (responsive)shorted the market where is your target? _______ 

    3B. Where is price when the probability of either up or down is equal? _____ 
    

    4B. Where would an upside breakout begin?  __________ 
              Locate the stop. ______ 
              What is the dollar value of the stop?  ___________ 
          What effect would the commercial activity have on your answer? 
           ____________________________________________________________ 

   
    5B.  If there was no downside breakout, where would you go long? ________ 
        If you (responsive) bought the market where is your stop? _______ 
        If you (responsive) bought the market where is your target? _______ 

  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 


    Day 3
     
   Screen for U2, 9 
   DY     FUTURE   D   UPPER   LOWER   CLOSE    $RNG 
   .  There are no Brackets for U2, 9. 
     
   Overlay(tm) and Extension for  5 days. 
    Overlay(tm) for Days =  5 is not bracketing 
   SEP 96 T-BOND (CBOT) DAY 
   08 19 96 TO 08 23 96 
    PRICE DYS  L/F ROT PROFILE *  TPOS TPO VOL OVERLAY * 
    11109  1   5     5               1 X 
    11108  1   5     5               1 X 
    11107  1   5     5               1 X 
    11106  1   5     5               1 X 
    11105  2   5     56              2 XX 
    11104  2   5     56              2 XX 
    11103  2   5     56              4 XXXX 
    11102  2   5     56              4 XXXX 
    11101  2   5     56             11 XXXXXXXXXXX 
    11100  2   5     56             16 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11031  2   5     56             22 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11030  2   5     56             22 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11029  2   5     56             19 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11028  3   5     568            17 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11027  3   5     568            12 XXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11026  3   5     568             6 XXXXXX 
    11025  4   5     5678            6 XXXXXX 
    11024  4   5     5678            7 XXXXXXX 
    11023  3         678             8 XXXXXXXX 
    11022  2         78              9 XXXXXXXXX 
    11021  2         78             11 XXXXXXXXXXX 
    11020  2         78             13 XXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11019  2         78             14 XXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11018  2         78             17 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11017  2         78             12 XXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11016  3    9    789            13 XXXXXXXXXXXXX 
    11015  3    9    789            10 XXXXXXXXXX 
    11014  3    9    789            10 XXXXXXXXXX 
    11013  2    9    89             10 XXXXXXXXXX 
    11012  2    9    89              8 XXXXXXXX 
    11011  2    9    89              7 XXXXXXX 
    11010  2    9    89              4 XXXX 
    11009  2    9    89              4 XXXX 
    11008  1    9    9               1 X 
    11007  1    9    9               1 X 
    11006  1    9    9               1 X 
    11005  1    9    9               1 X 
    11004  1    9    9               1 X 
    11003  1    9    9               1 X 
    11002  1    9    9               2 XX 
    11001  1    9    9               3 XXX 
    11000  1    9    9               4 XXXX 
    10931  1    9    9               5 XXXXX 
    10930  1    9    9               5 XXXXX 
    10929  1    9    9               2 XX 
    10928  1    9    9               3 XXX 
    10927  1    9    9               3 XXX 
    10926  1    9    9               3 XXX 
    10925  1    9    9               3 XXX 
    10924  1    9    9               2 XX 
    10923  1    9    9               3 XXX 
    10922  1    9    9               3 XXX 
    10921  1    9    9               5 XXXXX 
    10920  1    9    9               4 XXXX 
    10919  1    9    9               4 XXXX 
    10918  1    9    9               5 XXXXX 
    10917  1    9    9               6 XXXXXX  close 
    10916  1    9    9               4 XXXX 
    10915  1    9    9               3 XXX 
    10914  1    9    9               4 XXXX 
    10913  1    9    9               3 XXX 
    10912  1    9    9               3 XXX 
    10911  1    9    9               2 XX 
    10910  1    9    9               1 X 
     
    OVERLAY ANALYSIS:  Entire Overlay 
     Close  10917   Ten day:  Average range   24   Maximum range  120 
     Number prices in overlay  64    Total TPOs  395 
     Trade facilitation factor (TPOs/prices/days) =  1.23 
     TPO Control Price (HPTP)  11030:  TPOs Above and Below Control   61  301 
     
    DISTRIBUTION INFO:  Minimum Dist = 4 Prices, 3 TPOs.  Latest day symb = 9 
     There is/are 4 Distribution(s) in this Overlay 
     DIST#  HIGH MXTPO   LOW  PEAKTPOs 
         1 11103 11030 11009    22 
         2 11001 10930 10930     5 
         3 10928 10925 10925     3 
         4 10923 10917 10912     6 
     Distribution Above Close =    10928 10925 
     Close in Distribution #  4.  Limits = 10923 10912 
        Quadrant 1-2 Division Pt:   10921. 
        Quadrant 3-4 Division Pt:   10914. 
        Each quadrant is approx.        2. 
     
   ROTATION INDEX AND QUADRANT OF CLOSE 
                             8 DY CLO  4 DY CLO DAY 
   TRD DATE      HI      LO    RI  QD    RI  QD  ID 
   08 19 96   11109   11024  0.58   4  0.67   2   5 
   08 20 96   11105   11023  0.50   4  0.67   3   6 
   08 21 96   11025   11014  0.50   4  0.50   4   7 
   08 22 96   11028   11009  0.50   4  0.67   3   8 
   08 23 96   11016   10910  0.50   4  0.33   4   9 
     
    The CISCO Commercial Traders Volume Analysis 
     
                                  VOL/PRICE TIC         VALUE AREA      QUADRANT 
       DATE  HIGH   LOW CLOSE CTI V-AB V-VA V-BL %TOT %ABV  %VA %BLO   %QD1 %QD4 
   08 23 96 11016 10909 10916   2   14  100   75  5.0  0.4  3.4  1.2    5.7 30.3 
   08 22 96 11028 11009 11017   2   48  100    0  7.5  2.0  5.5  0.0   16.4 25.9 
   08 21 96 11025 11014 11019   2   21  100   31  7.1  0.9  5.2  1.0    4.5 13.8 
   08 20 96 11105 11023 11027   2   33  100   13  7.0  1.3  5.4  0.3   11.5  4.4 
   08 19 96 11109 11024 11028   2   11  100    9  8.0  1.1  6.5  0.3    1.6 25.2 
   08 16 96 11110 11030 11109   2   40  100   40  9.2  0.4  6.8  2.0   19.5 12.6 
   08 15 96 11101 11017 11022   2   36  100   24  9.0  1.8  6.6  0.6    9.0 29.7 
   08 14 96 11106 11022 11031   2   43  100   30  7.5  1.4  5.2  0.8   16.0 17.0 
   08 13 96 11216 11028 11030   2    6  100   26  8.3  0.7  6.1  1.4    5.9 18.7 
   08 12 96 11209 11125 11203   2   31  100   10  7.0  1.6  5.2  0.2   15.3 23.9 
     
                    AVERAGE     2   28  100   25  7.6  1.2  5.6  0.8   10.5 20.1 
     
   08 23 Lower Comml Action: 10909 VOL/PRICE   VALUE AREA  QUADRANT 
   08 22 Upper Comml Action: 11028             VALUE AREA 
   08 16 Lower Comml Action: 11030             VALUE AREA 
   08 13 Lower Comml Action: 11028             VALUE AREA 
     

   
     
  Questions:  Day 3 

    1A. There are no Overlays available today for the T-bonds. 
        From this day's data, why do you suppose there are no  
        Overlays listed?  ____________________________________________ 

    2A. What is the market condition? 
           ______________________________________________ 

   
   3A. Name the Overlay reference points associated with today's distribution. 
           ______________ 
           ______________ 
           ______________ 
           ______________ 

   4A. There are 2 more primary reference points potentially available in  
       the data above.  Name it. 
           ______________________________________________ 

   
  Instructions:  Using the primary reference points, answer the following: 

   1B. Would a swing trader be long or short?  __________ 
              Locate the stop. ______ .   
              What is the dollar value of the stop?  ___________ 
        What effect would today's commercial activity have on your answer? 
           ____________________________________________________________ 

     
    

   
  Review of Reference Points, Quarter 1; Advance information on Quarter 2. 

  As a market trades, it gives a complete, integrated report of what it is  
  doing.  This is the market generated data.  The raw data has all the  
  information from all trader types integrated together.  

  Introduced in Quarter 1, the basic set of six reference points is: 
      Market Condition (3) 
      Internal Trend 
      Commercial Activity 
      Pauses in Trends 
       
   A. Market Condition (three points) 
        Upper/Lower Bracket Limits 
        Upper/Lower Octants 
        Middle of distribition 

          Idealized Overlay Demand Curve (tm), with Reference Points 

            TPO Volume 
     100:00  x   
      99:31  xx             Trading above the limit alerts to start of up-trend 
      99:30  xxx  <== Upper bracket limit:  Breakout point. 
      99:29  xxxx 
      99:28  xxxxx  <== Octant:  One-eighth of bracket range. 
      99:27  xxxxxx 
      99:26  xxxxxxx      (<== Quadrant:  One-quarter of bracket range.) 
      99:25  xxxxxxxx 
      99:24  xxxxxxxxx 
      99:23  xxxxxxxxxx 
      99:22  xxxxxxxxxxx      (<== Middle of distribution.) 
      99:21  xxxxxxxxxx 
      99:20  xxxxxxxxx 
      99:19  xxxxxxxx 
      99:18  xxxxxxx      (<== Quadrant:  One-quarter of bracket range.) 
      99:17  xxxxxx 
      99:16  xxxxx  <== Octant:  One-eighth of bracket range. 
      99:15  xxxx 
      99:14  xxx  <== Lower bracket limit:  Breakout point. 
      99:13  xx             Trading below the limit alerts to start of down-trend 
      99:12  x   


The Overlay Demand Curve displays the market condition. Markets can be either balanced or bracketing, testing the bracket for breakout, trending, or ending a trend. These four conditions comprise the market cycle. A balanced condition is the starting point for understanding the market generated data; i.e. for providing the answer to 'who is doing what, and where they are doing it', the reference points. Note that market generated data incorporates any news that drives the market, so you have the effect of the news without the uncertainty of trying to forecast, or second guess reports.

The three primary reference points are the Upper/Lower Limits and the Upper/ Lower Octants and the middle. It is clear from the diagram that other ref- erence points are there as well. Limits define the distribution. Assuming a bell shaped, or 'normal' distribution, the Octants play the role of the 2nd standard distribution which means that 95% of the points (TPOs) falls between the upper and lower octants. Prices between the octants are 'expected'. Prices outside the distribution limits are 'unexpected'. Price falling between the limit and the octant are an alert that some- thing is about to happen--either an unexpected breakout (trend start) or an expected return back into the distribution.

Analysis:
The starting point of analysis is market condition. Bracketing markets begin the market cycle. These are single distribution, bell curve like, trading situations. Price spends most time near the middle of the bracket, but it does rotate out to the bracket limits on occasion.

    The three Overlay reference points define the bracket itself.

        Upper Limit: Prices higher than this constitute 'breakouts'.
        Upper Octant: 1/8 of the bracket price range from the top.
        Middle: 1/2 of the bracket price range from the top/bottom.
        Lower Octant: 1/8 of the bracket price range from the bottom.
        Lower Limit: Prices lower than this constitute 'breakouts'.

B. Internal Trends: The fourth reference point. Markets in balance have the market condition or major auction of bracket. The minor auction, what is happening in the short time-frame, can be balancing, i.e. rotating from high to low and back, or it may be defining a trend. The 'Rotation Index'/'Quadrant of Close' table in the TCP database measures the internal trend.

An Example: The Jan 97 soybeans on Nov 12, 1996:
      ROTATION INDEX AND QUADRANT OF CLOSE 
                                8 DY CLO  4 DY CLO DAY 
      TRD DATE      HI      LO    RI  QD    RI  QD  ID 
      11 06 96    6834    6770  0.50   3  0.42   1   5 
      11 07 96    6890    6844  0.42   2  0.25   1   6 
      11 08 96    6884    6824  0.50   2  0.25   1   7 
      11 11 96    6880    6764  0.58   2  0.67   4   8 
      11 12 96    6880    6630  0.67   1  0.42   1   9 
     

Rotation Index for the 8 dy line is 0.67, or non-trend; for the 4 dy it is 0.42 for a trend indication (0.60 is the cut-off). Quadrant of Close for both the 8 and 4 dy are 1, for upward direction. Three out of four is good enough to indicate an upward thrusting internal trend. Internal trends are meaningful in balanced markets (in trending markets the trend is external).

On Nov 13, the soybeans broke-out on the upside.
 
C. Commercials: The fifth reference point.
The T-bonds had been trending down for a week or more.
     
      09 03 Upper Comml Action: 10714             VALUE AREA 
            Lower Comml Action: 10602                         QUADRANT 
      08 30 Upper Comml Action: 10725             VALUE AREA 
      08 29 Upper Comml Action: 10817             VALUE AREA 
            Lower Comml Action: 10717             VALUE AREA  QUADRANT 
      08 28 Upper Comml Action: 10820                         QUADRANT 
      08 27 Upper Comml Action: 10820                         QUADRANT 
      08 23 Upper Comml Action: 11001             VALUE AREA  QUADRANT 
            Lower Comml Action: 10826 VOL/PRICE               QUADRANT 
      08 22 Upper Comml Action: 11012 VOL/PRICE               QUADRANT 
      08 20 Lower Comml Action: 11008             VALUE AREA 

On September 3 there was upper commercial action at 10714 and lower action at 10602. Since the market is in a downtrend, we are interested in possible capping of the bottom. A visual inspection of the day's half-hour bars (below) shows well defined capping at the bottom. The message to the trader is that the down trend is probably over, at least for now; so it is time to exit.
 
                 HALF-HOUR AUCTIONS FOR THE DAY. 
             y   z   A   B   C   D   E   F   G   H   I   J   K   L   M 
    10714                                                       11 
    10713                                                       18   1 
    10712                                                       20   3 
    10711                                                       26   4 
    10710                                                    3  26 
    10709                                                   10  21 
    10708                                                   13  10 
    10707                                                   11   2 
    10706                                            4       7 
    10705                                           15   4   6 
    10704                                           17  14   5 
    10703                                           19  19   6 
    10702                                           20  21   6 
    10701                                           11  18   3 
    10700                                            4   3   2 
    10631                                        7   3 
    10630                                    1  19   3 
    10629                                   15  21 
    10628                                   17  15 
    10627                                8   5   5 
    10626                               12   5 
    10625                                6   8 
    10624                            7   8   4 
    10623                        6  19  15   1 
    10622                       28  19  11 
    10621                       34  10   2 
    10620                       23 
    10619                    2  14 
    10618                   16  11 
    10617        5          20   8 
    10616       34          19   2 
    10615       47          14 
    10614       30          11 
    10613    3  13          18 
    10612    6  12          16 
    10611   10  25          11 
    10610   21  24          10 
    10609   20  18           7 
    10608    6  18           3 
    10607       12   9   7   5 
    10606        9  25  24   6 
    10605        6  50  30   5 
    10604           50  20   2 
    10603           21  11 
    10602            3   3 
             y   z   A   B   C   D   E   F   G   H   I   J   K   L   M 
     

    

D. Pauses in Trends
Trending markets display a run-pause characteristic, running through a number of prices very quickly and then pausing in a price region to trade awhile. A sixth reference point used only in trending markets, catalogs the pauses. An exit is indicated when price retraces to a prior pause.

     
     Overlay(tm) and Extension for  5 days. 
     JAN 97 SOYBEANS (CBOT) 
     10 28 96 TO 11 01 96 
     PRICE DYS  L/F ROT PROFILE *  TPOS TPO VOL OVERLAY * 
     7060  1   5     5               1 X 
     7050  1   5     5               4 XXXX <== breakout down 
     7040  1   5     5               8 XXXXXXXX 
     7030  2   5     56              9 XXXXXXXXX  Node # 1 
     7020  2   5     56              2 XX 
     7010  1         6               1 X 
     7000  1         6               1 X 
     6990  2         67              5 XXXXX 
     6980  2         67              8 XXXXXXXX 
     6970  2         67              6 XXXXXX  Node # 2 
     6960  2         67              6 XXXXXX 
     6950  2         67              8 XXXXXXXX 
     6940  2         67              5 XXXXX 
     6930  1         7               2 XX 
     6920  1         7               1 X 
     6910  1         7               1 X 
     6890  1         8               2 XX 
     6880  1         8               2 XX 
     6870  1         8               2 XX 
     6860  1         8               4 XXXX 
     6850  1         8               5 XXXXX 
     6840  1         8               6 XXXXXX  Node # 3 
     6830  1         8               4 XXXX 
     6820  1         8               2 XX 
     6810  1         8               3 XXX 
     6800  1         8               3 XXX 
     6790  1         8               2 XX 
     6780  1         8               2 XX 
     6770  1         8               2 XX 
     6760  1         8               3 XXX 
     6750  1         8               3 XXX  Node # 4 
     6740  1         8               2 XX 
     6730  1         8               1 X 
     6720  1    9    9               1 X 
     6710  2    9    89              2 XX 
     6700  2    9    89              4 XXXX 
     6690  1    9    9               4 XXXX 
     6680  2    9    89              8 XXXXXXXX 
     6670  2    9    89              8 XXXXXXXX  Node # 5 
     6660  1    9    9               7 XXXXXXX 
     6650  1    9    9               5 XXXXX 
     6640  1    9    9               2 XX 
     6630  1    9    9               1 X 
     

The general rule on pauses is to exit when price regresses to a former Node. The stop for the next day, Monday, November 4, is 675, the price at Node 4. The high on November 4 exceeded 675, terminating the trade.

Quarter 2, Reference Points: A Preview
    Volume (three types)
        Total
        Commercial
        Public

    Volatility
    Trade Facilitation Factor
    Quadrant of Close
   
Some reference points differ in their interpretation, depending on the four market conditions: bracketing or balancing; testing the balance for breakout; a market that has broken out of balance and is now trending; and that phase at the end of the trend. Each market condition is recognizable from today's Overlay, interpreted within the context of the behavior of recent Overlays.

A market will either stay in it's present condition (continue) or move on to the next phase (change). Market analysis can be thought of as continuation analysis. If the probability of continuation is high (say a trend is expected to continue), the trader has little to do. If the reference points indicate change, the trader must prepare a strategy to cope with it.

The first of the second quarter reference points to be studied is the total volume. The Liquidity Data Bank has the latest day's volume, a fact used in the analysis of commercial trading action. As a reference point in it's own right, it is instructive to see the many ways that volume helps to understand markets under various market conditions.
 
      Condition    Reference point       Interpretation 

     Bracketing:  Volume decreasing   positive for continuation 
     Bracketing:  Volume increasing   positive for change 
     Bracketing:  Volume stable       positive for continuation 

     Testing:     Volume decreasing   positive for continuing bracket 
     Testing:     Volume increasing   positive for trending 
     Testing:     Volume stable       positive for continuing bracket 

     Trending:    Volume decreasing   positive for change 
     Trending:    Volume increasing   positive for continuation 
     Trending:    Volume stable       positive for continuation if volume high 
     Trending:    Volume stable       positive for change       if volume low 

     Trend end:   Volume decreasing   positive for change 
     Trend end:   Volume increasing   positive for contin. of trend 
     Trend end:   Volume stable       positive for contin. of trend high vol 
     Trend end:   Volume stable       positive for change  of trend low vol 


There are three useful volumes reported, for the floor traders, for commercials, and for the public. Consequently, volume interpretation has many possibilities.

Volatility
Volatility is a one day measure of the fluctuation of the half-hour tick bars. If volatility is too large, fluctuation is large and the risk goes up. Each market has it's own characteristic volatility and it is up to the trader to 'learn the market'.

Trade Facilitation Factor
Other reference points are simple go, no-go, like the Trade Facilitation Factor. If it is larger than a certain amount, normally 4.0, the market is grinding to a halt. If smaller, trade is being facilitated.

Quadrant of Close
Strong markets tend to close in the first, or upper quadrant of the day's trading range. An upward trend with a close below the first quadrant is showing weakness. Likewise, the fourth, or lowest, quadrant is preferred for down trends.
In any case, each reference point has a use; a region or regions where it can help us understand the market.

It is the sum of the pertinent reference points that indicates continuation or change. An important part of the home-study course is learning how to combine the various reference points under the several market conditions.

In the coming quarter of study, the assignment is to integrate the new reference points into your analysis. Always start out with the basic six reference points:

        Market Condition (3)
        Internal Trend
        Commercial Activity

    If you are a swing or trend trader, incorporate pause analysis.
        Pauses in Trends

    Next, apply the volume.
        Volume (three types)
            Total
            Commercial
            Public

Volatility
Use the volatility as an adjunct to volume. If volume is up, volatility should be also. If they disgree, something is wrong.

Trade Facilitation Factor
    High Trade Facilitation Factors indicate a market that is being ignored by
    the traders. Pressure is building up. It is an alert for a breakout.

Quadrant of Close
    Location of the close is often a pointer. Price tends to move to where
    demand forces it. A breakout to the upside requires price in the upper
    quadrant, at least for awhile.
 
 
Start of Quarter_2 Lessons