CISCO Futures
1-303-306-1521 1-800 800 7227 Fax 1-303-306-1598
http://www.cisco-futures.com
dljones@cisco-futures.com
Markets do NOT Turn on a Dime
Day traders often pay slavish attention to their tick data. In some cases this
is a must, since they are trading in the noise, grabbing a couple of points
while trading many times per day.
This is not trading value, it is trading volatility (what the economists call
noise trading). One has to be adept to trade volatility and avoid going
down the tubes. On the other hand, markets offer an average of
two or three change-in-value trades per day. Value trades are defined by
the market. You can be guided by market information.
From Noise Trader to Insider
It is well known that directional markets (moving markets) run and pause,
run and pause and so on until the last pause is not followed by a run, but
rather by congestion. Each pause is a mini-congestion. While in a pause,
you have difficulty telling whether the pause will continue or if the
run will start up again. Pauses take time, in the neighborhood of an
hour or so. We say "if it takes an hour to understand a change in value,
the market is certainly not turning on a dime".
A value day trader begins the day understanding value at as many levels
as possible: multi-day value (from Overlay Demand Curves),
previous day value (from the Meta-Profile) and overnight value
(from early morning
trading if possible). Each value has a range, a support and resistance.
Where do
we get these values? Multi-day value comes from the Visual Graphic on the
CISCO site, as does the latest day, Meta-Profile, CMaPS. In both cases you have
the support and resistance for the period chosen.
Visual Graphics Information Links
Market Profiles/Meta-Profiles
The overnight value is estimated by eye, if enough trading activity is
present. This is the third, shortest timeframe support/resistance pair,
best used for market feel.
How can we have confidence in these values? They are not from guessing or chart
reading. They come from solid market theory.
Auction Market Value Theory
Auction Market Value Theory is based on
the fact that the market is a complex environment, self regulating and driven by feedback.
Feedback is what we get from our ticker. It works like this: A pulse, say a
20 point
jump in a future we are trading, shows up on our quoter. Everyone sees it at
the same time. But not everyone reacts the same way or at the same speed.
One trader might respond
with an immediate buy order. Another may think about it for awhile
and ultimately decide to sell, and so forth for the whole body of traders.
The cumulative reaction of the market takes some time for everyone to get
their vote in. How long? The original
estimate for profiles was 30 minutes, on average. That may seem like a
lifetime to the trader chasing ticks. But the market is going to respond at
its own pace, in its own time. At CISCO, we measured the time of response,
which turned out to be 25 minutes for the case we studied. The point is that
the market is going to act at it's own speed, not at the pace you may wish.
Volatility
Pauses and Congestion for Thirty Minute Bars for DJM May 18, 2005
As noted above, we know that directional markets run, pause, run, pause and
so on
until the final pause is not followed by a run, i.e. the trend is over and
congestion has set in. There is no better way to visually identify the
pause-run process than with the Meta-Profile and half-hour bars tracking the
trading ranges (CMaPS is the Meta-Profile name on the CISCO web site).
Figure 1. is a dual display of a standard Profile with TPOs on the left and
the day in 30 minute bars (TPTs) on the right.
We define a pause alert for this study as three TPTs on a price row
in the 30 minute bars.
Looking in the price range 103800 to
103740 we see the first pause alert of the day in the timeframe 07:30 to
09:00 (half hour bars $, A, and B).
Commodity: DJM - DJIA (CBOT) DAY
Trading Date: 20050518
Start Time: 07:00
Stop Time: 15:30
Profile Type: 30 minute
CISCO Meta-Profile
-------------------------++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Price TPOs TPTs
Meta-Profile 30 Minute Bars
-------------------------++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
104920 L L
104900 LM LM
104890 LM LM
104880 LM LM
104870 LM LM
104860 LM LM
104850 HILM HI LM
104840 HILM HI LM
104830 HILM HI LM
104820 HILM HI LM
104810 HILM HI LM
104800 GHIJKLMNO GHI JKLMNO
104790 GHIJKLMNO GHI JKLMNO
104780 GHIJKLMNO GHI JKLMNO
104770 GHIJKLMNO GHI JKLMNO
104760 GHIJKLMNO GHI JKLMNO
104750 GHIJKLMNO GHI JKLMNO
104740 GHIJKLMNO GHI JKLMNO
104730 GHIJKLMNO GHI JKLMNO
104720 GHIJKLMNO GHI JKLMNO
104710 GHIJKLMNO GHI JKLMNO
104700 GHIJKLMNO GHI JKLMNO
104690 GHIJKLN GHI JKL N
104680 GHIJKLN GHI JKL N
104670 GHIJKLN GHI JKL N
104660 GHIJKLN GHI JKL N
104650 GHIJKLN GHI JKL N
104640 GIJK G I JK
104630 GIJK G I JK
104620 GIJK G I JK
104610 GIJK G I JK
104600 GIJK G I JK
104580 GK G K
104570 GK G K
104550 GK G K
104540 GK G K
104530 GK G K
104520 GK G K
104510 GK G K
104500 GK G K
104480 G G
104470 G G
104460 G G
104450 G G
104430 G G
104420 G G
104400 FG FG
104380 FG FG
104370 F F
104360 F F
104350 F F
104340 F F
104330 F F
104300 DF D F
104290 DF D F
104280 DEF DEF
104270 DEF DEF
104260 DEF DEF
104250 DEF DEF
104240 DEF DEF
104230 DEF DEF
104220 DEF DEF
104210 DEF DEF
104200 DEF DEF
104190 DE DE
104180 DE DE
104170 DE DE
104160 DE DE
104150 CDE CDE
104140 CD CD
104130 CD CD
104120 CD CD
104100 CD CD
104090 C C
104080 C C
104070 C C
104060 C C
104050 C C
104040 C C
104030 C C
104020 C C
104000 C C
103990 C C
103980 C C
103970 BC BC
103960 BC BC
103950 BC BC
103940 BC BC
103930 BC BC
103920 BC BC
103910 BC BC
103900 BC BC
103890 BC BC
103880 BC BC
103870 B B
103850 B B
103840 B B
103830 AB AB
103820 AB AB
103810 AB AB
103800 $AB $AB
103790 $AB $AB
103780 $AB $AB
103770 $AB $AB
103760 $AB $AB
103750 $AB $AB
103740 $AB $AB
103730 $A $A
103720 $ $
103700 $ $
103650 $ $
103600 $ $
103450 Z Z
103440 Z Z
103420 Z Z
103410 Z Z
103400 Z Z
103350 Z Z
103340 Z Z
*103320 Z Z
103310 Z Z
103300 Z Z
Figure 1. Half-hour bars for DJM May 18, 2005.
All the time-place letters in the time bars
(Figure 1. and Figure 2., as well) are in fact TPTs (That Price Ticked) rather
than TPOs from clearing. However, for clarity we will refer to the left
columns data as TPOs while the right, the half-hour bars, will be TPTs.
Commodity: DJM - DJIA (CBOT) DAY
Trading Date: 20050518
Start Time: 07:00
Stop Time: 15:30
Profile Type: 30 minute
CISCO Meta-Profile
-------------------------++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Price TPOs TPTs
30 Minute Profile 15 Minute Bars
-------------------------++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
104920 L X
104900 LM X Z
104890 LM X Z
104880 LM X Z
104870 LM X Z
104860 LM X Z
104850 HILM PQ XYZ
104840 HILM PQ XYZ
104830 HILM PQ XYZ
104820 HILM PQ XYZ
104810 HILM PQ XYZ
104800 GHIJKLMNO NOPQ S V XYZ1 3
104790 GHIJKLMNO NOPQ S VWXYZ1 3
104780 GHIJKLMNO NOPQ S VWXYZ1 3
104770 GHIJKLMNO NOPQ S VWXYZ1 3
104760 GHIJKLMNO NOPQ S VWXYZ1 3
104750 GHIJKLMNO NOPQ S VWXYZ123
104740 GHIJKLMNO NOPQ S VW Z123
104730 GHIJKLMNO NOPQ S VW Z1234
104720 GHIJKLMNO NOPQ S VW Z1234
104710 GHIJKLMNO NOPQ ST VW Z1234
104700 GHIJKLMNO NOPQR STUVW Z1234
104690 GHIJKLN NOPQR STU W 12
104680 GHIJKLN MNOPQR STU W 12
104670 GHIJKLN MNOPQR STU W 12
104660 GHIJKLN MNOPQR STU W 1
104650 GHIJKLN MNO QR TU W 1
104640 GIJK MN QR TU
104630 GIJK M R TU
104620 GIJK M R TU
104610 GIJK M R TU
104600 GIJK M R TU
104580 GK M U
104570 GK M U
104550 GK M U
104540 GK M U
104530 GK M U
104520 GK M U
104510 GK M U
104500 GK M U
104480 G M
104470 G M
104460 G M
104450 G M
104430 G M
104420 G M
104400 FG LM
104380 FG LM
104370 F L
104360 F L
104350 F L
104340 F L
104330 F L
104300 DF G KL
104290 DF G KL
104280 DEF G JKL
104270 DEF G JKL
104260 DEF G JKL
104250 DEF G IJKL
104240 DEF GHIJKL
104230 DEF GHIJKL
104220 DEF GHIJK
104210 DEF GHIJK
104200 DEF GHIJK
104190 DE GHIJ
104180 DE GHIJ
104170 DE GHIJ
104160 DE GHI
104150 CDE FGHI
104140 CD FGH
104130 CD FGH
104120 CD FG
104100 CD FG
104090 C F
104080 C EF
104070 C EF
104060 C EF
104050 C EF
104040 C EF
104030 C EF
104020 C EF
104000 C EF
103990 C EF
103980 C EF
103970 BC C EF
103960 BC C EF
103950 BC C EF
103940 BC C EF
103930 BC CDEF
103920 BC CDE
103910 BC CDE
103900 BC CDE
103890 BC CDE
103880 BC CDE
103870 B CD
103850 B CD
103840 B CD
103830 AB A CD
103820 AB A CD
103810 AB A CD
103800 $AB 68A CD
103790 $AB 68ABCD
103780 $AB 68ABCD
103770 $AB 68ABCD
103760 $AB 68ABC
103750 $AB 68ABC
103740 $AB 68 BC
103730 $A 68 B
103720 $ 68
103700 $ 68
103650 $ 6
103600 $ 6
103450 Z 4
103440 Z 4
103420 Z 4
103410 Z 4
103400 Z 4
103350 Z 4
103340 Z 4
103320 Z 4
103310 Z 4
103300 Z 4
Figure 2. Fifteen-minute bars for DJM May 18, 2005.
All the time-place letters on are in fact TPTs (That Price Ticked) rather
than TPOs from clearing. However, for clarity we will refer to the left
columns data as TPOs while the right will be TPTs.
$ Period 7:20: 0 103300 103340 103300 103340 17 7:22: 0 103350 103410 103350 103410 11 7:24: 0 103440 103450 103400 103450 10 7:26: 0 103400 103400 103400 103400 1 7:28: 0 0 0 0 0 0 Z Period 7:30: 0 103600 103650 103600 103650 6 7:31:59 103700 103780 103700 103780 9 7:33:59 103760 103800 103750 103780 8 7:35:59 103770 103770 103740 103740 3 7:37:59 103720 103770 103720 103770 5 7:39:59 103730 103750 103720 103720 3 7:41:59 103740 103750 103700 103700 6 7:43:59 103740 103740 103720 103730 4 7:46: 0 103750 103750 103750 103750 1 7:48: 0 103730 103730 103720 103720 2 7:50: 0 103700 103700 103700 103700 1 7:52: 0 103740 103750 103740 103750 2 7:54: 0 103780 103780 103740 103740 4 7:56: 0 103780 103800 103780 103790 4 7:58: 0 103800 103800 103760 103760 2 A Period 8: 0: 0 103800 103810 103800 103810 2 8: 2: 0 103800 103800 103770 103800 4 8: 3:59 103790 103790 103790 103790 1 8: 6: 0 103800 103800 103780 103800 3 8: 7:59 103750 103830 103750 103750 8 8:10: 0 103800 103800 103800 103800 1 8:11:59 103750 103780 103750 103780 2 8:14: 0 103750 103760 103750 103760 2 8:15:59 103730 103780 103730 103780 2 8:18: 0 103760 103780 103760 103780 2 8:19:59 0 0 0 0 0 8:22: 0 103750 103750 103730 103740 6 8:23:59 103750 103750 103750 103750 1 8:26: 0 103770 103770 103770 103770 1 8:27:59 103750 103790 103750 103780 5 B Period 8:30: 0 103750 103830 103740 103820 7 8:32: 0 103830 103900 103800 103900 21 8:33:59 103930 103950 103920 103950 15 8:36: 0 103970 103970 103930 103930 5 8:37:59 103940 103940 103900 103900 6 8:40: 0 103880 103900 103850 103880 7 8:41:59 103890 103930 103890 103930 5 8:44: 0 103940 103950 103880 103900 16 8:45:59 103890 103890 103850 103850 3 8:48: 0 103830 103840 103770 103800 11 8:49:59 103840 103890 103830 103850 6 8:52: 0 103840 103850 103830 103850 4 8:53:59 103870 103920 103870 103920 3 8:56: 0 103930 103930 103830 103850 3 8:57:59 103840 103840 103840 103840 1 C Period 9: 0: 0 103900 103900 103880 103900 5 9: 2: 0 0 0 0 0 0 9: 3:59 103920 103950 103920 103930 7 9: 6: 0 103950 103970 103940 103950 8 9: 7:59 103920 104000 103920 103990 17 9:10: 0 104000 104080 104000 104020 20 9:11:59 104000 104030 103950 103950 7 9:14: 0 103980 103980 103950 103970 6 9:15:59 103980 103980 103930 103930 4 9:18: 0 103950 103980 103930 103980 6 9:19:59 104000 104050 104000 104000 3 9:22: 0 104000 104000 103950 104000 3 9:23:59 104040 104050 104000 104000 5 9:26: 0 104050 104100 104050 104080 10 9:27:59 104070 104150 104070 104150 14 D Period 9:30: 0 104100 104250 104100 104250 11 9:32: 0 104230 104270 104220 104270 15 9:33:59 104290 104300 104250 104250 11 9:36: 0 104260 104280 104200 104210 10 9:37:59 104200 104210 104170 104170 8 9:40: 0 104180 104200 104180 104200 4 9:41:59 104180 104210 104180 104200 5 9:44: 0 104180 104200 104180 104180 3 9:45:59 104200 104200 104150 104150 3 9:48: 0 104170 104170 104130 104130 3 9:49:59 104150 104170 104130 104170 5 9:52: 0 104200 104200 104150 104150 5 9:53:59 104200 104200 104180 104190 3 9:56: 0 104200 104210 104200 104200 3 9:57:59 104230 104240 104230 104240 2 E Period 10: 0: 0 104220 104250 104200 104200 7 10: 2: 0 104190 104200 104150 104150 5 10: 3:59 104160 104170 104150 104150 3 10: 6: 0 104180 104180 104180 104180 1 10: 7:59 104200 104200 104200 104200 1 10:10: 0 104230 104230 104200 104220 4 10:11:59 104200 104200 104170 104170 2 10:14: 0 104180 104200 104150 104200 7 10:15:59 104190 104220 104180 104220 4 10:18: 0 104200 104200 104180 104200 3 10:19:59 104230 104250 104200 104250 4 10:22: 0 104240 104280 104240 104280 4 10:23:59 0 0 0 0 0 10:26: 0 104240 104240 104240 104240 1 10:27:59 104270 104270 104250 104250 4 F Period 10:30: 0 0 0 0 0 0 10:32: 0 104260 104260 104260 104260 1 10:33:59 104230 104250 104230 104230 3 10:36: 0 104250 104300 104240 104250 5 10:37:59 104240 104250 104220 104240 5 10:40: 0 104200 104230 104200 104230 2 10:41:59 104200 104230 104200 104230 3 10:44: 0 104220 104250 104220 104240 4 10:45:59 104250 104250 104250 104250 1 10:48: 0 104280 104280 104280 104280 1 10:49:59 104270 104370 104270 104350 15 10:52: 0 104340 104380 104340 104380 5 10:53:59 104370 104400 104350 104370 9 10:56: 0 104380 104380 104350 104370 5 10:57:59 104380 104380 104350 104350 2 G Period 11: 0: 0 104380 104420 104380 104420 3 11: 2: 0 104450 104500 104420 104450 13 11: 3:59 104470 104500 104450 104500 7 11: 6: 0 104510 104530 104500 104500 8 11: 7:59 104530 104580 104500 104580 12 11:10: 0 104570 104650 104570 104650 17 11:11:59 104630 104680 104600 104650 9 11:14: 0 104680 104680 104650 104680 3 11:15:59 104650 104730 104640 104730 17 11:18: 0 104740 104790 104730 104750 17 11:19:59 104770 104800 104730 104730 11 11:22: 0 104710 104730 104650 104670 10 11:23:59 104700 104700 104660 104680 3 11:26: 0 104700 104700 104680 104680 2 11:27:59 104700 104700 104670 104670 7 H Period 11:30: 0 104660 104660 104650L 104650 2 11:32: 0 104670 104670 104650L 104650 2 11:33:59 104680 104680 104680 104680 1 11:36: 0 104670 104700 104670 104700 2 11:37:59 104730 104750 104680 104750 6 11:40: 0 104780 104800 104750 104750 8 11:41:59 104760 104800 104700 104700 6 11:44: 0 104730 104750 104680 104680 5 11:45:59 104660 104680 104660 104680 2 11:48: 0 104670 104700 104670 104700 4 11:49:59 104750 104750 104730 104730 2 11:52: 0 104700 104750 104700 104750 2 11:53:59 104760 104850H 104760 104850 14 11:56: 0 104800 104800 104750 104760 4 11:57:59 104750 104800 104750 104780 4 I Period 12: 0: 0 104770 104800 104770 104800 3 12: 2: 0 104780 104830 104780 104820 3 12: 3:59 104850 104850 104770 104770 5 12: 6: 0 104780 104800 104780 104800 2 12: 7:59 104760 104760 104750 104750 2 12:10: 0 104720 104720 104650 104680 7 12:11:59 104660 104660 104640 104640 3 12:14: 0 104650 104680 104650 104680 4 12:15:59 104650 104650 104650 104650 1 12:18: 0 104610 104610 104600 104600 4 12:19:59 104620 104620 104600 104600 2 12:22: 0 0 0 0 0 0 12:23:59 104620 104650 104600 104650 3 12:26: 0 104680 104680 104680 104680 1 12:27:59 104700 104700 104700 104700 1 J Period 12:30: 0 104690 104690 104670 104670 2 12:32: 0 104700 104700 104700 104700 1 12:33:59 104710 104760 104700 104760 3 12:36: 0 104780 104780 104780 104780 1 12:37:59 104800 104800 104740 104740 4 12:40: 0 104720 104800 104720 104780 4 12:41:59 104750 104750 104700 104700 4 12:44: 0 104670 104670 104660 104670 3 12:45:59 104680 104680 104680 104680 1 12:48: 0 104670 104710 104670 104710 3 12:49:59 104650 104650 104650 104650 1 12:52: 0 104670 104670 104620 104620 3 12:53:59 104600 104600 104600 104600 1 12:56: 0 104610 104650 104610 104630 3 12:57:59 104620 104620 104620 104620 1 K Period 13: 0: 0 104530 104540 104500 104500 10 13: 2: 0 104550 104640 104510 104640 6 13: 3:59 104650 104650 104630 104650 4 13: 6: 0 104670 104670 104670 104670 1 13: 7:59 104680 104700 104650 104670 5 13:10: 0 0 0 0 0 0 13:11:59 104700 104700 104700 104700 1 13:14: 0 104670 104670 104670 104670 1 13:15:59 104700 104740 104700 104730 4 13:18: 0 0 0 0 0 0 13:19:59 104700 104700 104700 104700 1 13:22: 0 0 0 0 0 0 13:23:59 0 0 0 0 0 13:26: 0 104730 104730 104700 104700 2 13:27:59 104760 104800 104750 104750 6 L Period 13:30: 0 104700 104700 104650 104680 4 13:32: 0 104700 104730 104700 104730 3 13:33:59 104750 104790 104730 104790 8 13:36: 0 104750 104750 104750 104750 1 13:37:59 104700 104730 104700 104730 2 13:40: 0 104750 104750 104700 104700 3 13:41:59 104750 104760 104750 104760 2 13:44: 0 104790 104790 104750 104750 4 13:45:59 104760 104770 104760 104770 2 13:48: 0 104750 104750 104750 104750 1 13:49:59 104800 104900 104800 104900 13 13:52: 0 104880 104880 104850 104850 2 13:53:59 0 0 0 0 0 13:56: 0 104900 104920 104900 104900 5 13:57:59 104880 104880 104850 104850 5 M Period 14: 0: 0 104800 104800 104800 104800 1 14: 2: 0 104750 104800 104750 104780 5 14: 3:59 104790 104800 104790 104800 4 14: 6: 0 104830 104850 104800 104800 3 14: 7:59 104750 104750 104750 104750 1 14:10: 0 104790 104790 104770 104770 2 14:11:59 104800 104800 104800 104800 1 14:14: 0 104770 104770 104770 104770 1 14:15:59 0 0 0 0 0 14:18: 0 104840 104870 104840 104870 5 14:19:59 104800 104850 104800 104850 4 14:22: 0 104880 104880 104880 104880 1 14:23:59 104850 104850 104840 104840 2 14:26: 0 104900 104900 104850 104850 2 14:27:59 104700 104700 104700 104700 1 N Period 14:30: 0 104720 104720 104700 104700 2 14:32: 0 104720 104720 104720 104720 1 14:33:59 104730 104730 104700 104700 2 14:36: 0 104740 104740 104650 104650 5 14:37:59 104660 104660 104650 104650 2 14:40: 0 104680 104780 104680 104780 3 14:41:59 104760 104800 104760 104780 3 14:44: 0 104800 104800 104730 104750 4 14:45:59 104700 104700 104700 104700 1 14:48: 0 104680 104700 104670 104680 4 14:49:59 104670 104700 104670 104700 4 14:52: 0 104670 104690 104670 104690 2 14:53:59 104700 104700 104670 104670 2 14:56: 0 104690 104720 104690 104720 5 14:57:59 104700 104700 104690 104690 2 O Period 15: 0: 0 104700 104750 104700 104710 4 15: 2: 0 104730 104750 104720 104750 5 15: 3:59 104760 104800 104700 104750 7 15: 6: 0 104740 104740 104730 104740 3 15: 7:59 104750 104750 104750 104750 1 15:10: 0 104770 104770 104750 104750 2 15:11:59 104730 104750 104700 104720 6 15:14: 0 104730 104730 104700 104710 6